So, will the long-term consequences now take effect in the stock-markets? (At one time they have too...) We had a very good bullish run since March, and I think it had its reason. Good prices on stocks, many market participants (), many people claiming that this is "just a flu" (no fear). Now 1/3 of all infected people around the world are from the US, UK has the highest growing value, many more people are taking this crisis serious. I think that the bull run of the last weeks can be called the "most hated rally" ever, because a) no one anticipated this bull run b) some did not buy at low levels, waiting for a pullback c) others hoping every day that the run will come to an end, so they can at least make money on the short side.
In a normal market, buyers don't bid up prices like that and the market is highly manipulated and rigged especially the nasdaq. S$p500 not or ES and dow jones less manipulated and more widely owned by institutions. it short squeeze. in nasdaq S &p 500 and dow jones is still in bearish territory. As for nasdaq its even more bubble than 2000 if things blow up stocks in nasdq is inflated by 5 times or 10x what it is worth or 'value' or what value investors like Buffet would buy it for. as a long term investment. and thin lightly traded volume in nasdaq shows only people buying is short term traders and shorts etc. very thin and quiet market at the top.
Old saying: "buying brings out more buyers, selling brings out more sellers." Yesterday, the NQ made a new 100-hour high...it is not profitable historically to short 100-hour highs, but it is profitable to short after 100-hour lows. In other words, better to let the market break first, and then get short, rather than try to pick a top.
maybe you should study economic 101 high price less demand. lower price higher demand known as the demand with price. it doesn't apply to bubbles or ponzi schemes where price doesn't matter. think of the market as like concert ticket scalpers ...and you can understand why someone would pay 10x what it is worth. in normal economics. as long as their is profit people would sell their product or supply would increaseto fill the demand.. there is no profit. these are shorts buying in a short squeeze. these shorts still not covering as they are permanent short ETF which didn't exist 20 years ago. The QQQ and ETF people trade or invest in them. People just bought their own portfolio of stocks and really no reason to pay 1-3% management fee. Lots of DUMB money in the market. The Federal reserve is what you call 'dumb money' or forced to buy.
Too many people want to short... If i had to guess, i'd expect something like this. But this is so useless lol... What happens, happens , just go with it. Doesn't matter what any of us think or want. Even if you knew what was going to happen, it's probably not helping you at all. Just play good risk to reward setups that you know have an edge. Nothing else matters and rarely anything else makes consistent profits, atleast from my experience.
Its a fact that stocks are more expensive now than they were in February just before the crisis came. S&p was going to do $160 in earnings, that number is not even possible at this point. Aside from that its the same stocks pushing up the entire market. This has been going on for quite a while and eventually everyone knows it does NOT last forever. These stocks will tire out just like the leading stocks of the markets in the past. This market is completely overpriced but no one ever admits to this until after equities have sold off 23% do they say markets were do for a correction....
So how come a market can be oversold for only days or a week or 2 at max, but can never ever be overbought, especially after a decade or 3?
if they admit it now or know it they would be short, overprices is a vague statement, based on what exactly? profits? earnings? True though its few stocks pushing up the market