First, we have to look back at Yahoo. Yahoo was one of the infamous companies stuck in an asset bubble way back when. It traded over 100 at one point and then got back down to 4 where it then consolidated in a trading range for nearly 2 years before breaking out and upwards. It never went back to its original 100+ price, but it did make for a nice trade back then. As I looked at the Yahoo chart, I have to add the "maybe" to the equation and feel that this call might be premature. Beazer could turn right around and go to 4 dollars or it might go lower. Broadcomm was another stock stuck in a bubble way back when. It was trading at 180 and it didnt break out of the bubble until the end of 2000 when many other tech stocks were shooting downwards. It then headed lower in 2001 to consolidate for months and then turned even lower after that. In going around town and talking to many different persons, the consensus is that housing will eventually make a come-back and everyone is going to sell their house when it turns back up. Lets think of this logic, hmmmm, this sounds mighty familiar to how stockholders of tech in the old days sounded... As for housing stocks, these are the absolutely most resilient stocks that I have ever seen. For 3 years, there has been much gloom&doom. How many bad earnings calls? How many news articles? These companies still seem to be around and their stock price still seems pretty strong. Here is that Yahoo chart. Compare it to todays Beazer. Look at the similiarities. Now Beazer, remember, could turn right around to 4 at which time it will be a great time to "load up" I know it will feel like shiiittteeee to do so when and if it does get to 4, but think Yahoo. No one wanted to touch a tech or dot.com stock in 2002 and they could have had a great trade if they did... As for the XLF and financials, no they have not bottomed. No way. Look at the XLF. Those are just lower highs and lower lows. Dont touch it.
Here is the Goldman Sachs chart. Goldman is arguably the king of the financial community. In looking at this chart without doing any real technical analysis, would you go long? I dont believe Goldman has bottomed.
The feds bailed everyone out, they simply won't let it happen. Got shitty loans, can't collect your mortgage? no problem you can trade them for bonds.
fair enough jreynolds....you are off of my list of people to berate on elitetrader when i am bored. i would post my stock picks but i can't anymore since i got in trouble with my office after i posted a call to buy ADS after earnings came out awhile back. it was nice because i nailed exactly what the analysts would say the next day. other than that i do agree homebuilders should be bought on the pullbacks or at support levels for swing trades.
Im going to give you a present Robbie. Look at my new thread on charting housing in the technical analysis section...
Hey Jack, you would be wise to separate the housing stocks from the actual Real Estate market. Yes these stocks put in a very nice looking bottom, but they fell 75% from their highs. How much has actual R.E. gone down??? Due to liquidity, the physical R.E. takes much, much longer to work itself out. If you look at history, usually takes 7-10 years from the top to a bottom. Whenever you hear someone say, "but this time is different, because..." Run away from them, very fast.
SRS is mainly commercial not residential. The homebuilder stocks have not bottomed and are nothing but trading vehicles. The fundamentals are awful and continue to deteriorate. Wait until the bankruptcies start. BZH is most likely already insolvent and the banks are keeping many builders afloat.