add question one: clearly no. add q. two: within this business anyone entering is most likely failing. the odds are heavily against any newbie, even high class background does not raise the chance to survive significantly (that is at least my pracrtical experience). so, following your logic, that would mean that you can't encourage anyone since they all "are not likely to make it". sorry 'bout my digging into semantics - i guess i am in loose wittgenstein mode this morning. but there is more to it on that second part. i had a programmer two years ago who was good in C++, but had not done trading systems before. i gave him one simple breakout strategy which was lying around, plus the famous turtle paper of curtis faith and he played with long term ma crossovers as well. after three months he came with results and we started trading this conglomerate of three trend followers. trading a sharpe of 1 or so since then on this thing. he was a newbie and just got some directions. that was it. now one can argue that a sharpe of 1 is not the biggest excitement of all and i completely agree. it took a team of three people here more than a year to develop our pairstrading model. no way a standalone newbie can do that. so my answer to your second question is that one should be careful judging other people's abilities plus one should not be fixed on what one is doing on his own account. remember alan crary's stuff? nothing spectacular in terms of complexity. yet obviously highly effective. there is an indian proverb that when you point at someone with your indexfinger, one finger is pointing at him - but three are pointing at yourself. try it out. peace
Hmmm, man, perhaps this applies to yourself as well. And as far as the OP goes: Most of the old timers here start to get very cynical when people do not do their own research and come up with the same old questions. There is a search button in the top right hand corner and there is a lot of wealth to be found on ET, particularly in the old posts and old threads. I have said the following a few times before and it is good wisdom to take to heart. Old Chinese wisdom: Those who know do not speak Those who speak do not know Block the passages Close the door Blunt the sharpness Untie the tangles Harmonize with the brightness Identify the way of the world Roald Amundson, polar explorer, 1927: Victory awaits those who have everything in order - people call that luck Defeat is certain for those who have forgotten to take the necessary precautions - people call that bad luck Maria
There is an expression: Everyone knows that it cannot be done. Then there comes one person who does not know that it cannot be done and that person does it. Maria
But of course, yes. Consider this: Let's say your wife/girlfriend is 200+ pounds. Your opinion is going to change considerably of that fact depending on if she is asking you (Honey, am I fat? your answer: hell, no) or if your buddy is asking you in the pub (hey, Nitro, isn't your wife a bit overweight?your answer: hell, yes, she is a pig)
the same moment i wrote it i thought the same. perfectly right. "Those who know do not speak Those who speak do not know" which applies to you as well, right? do not get me wrong, no offense intended. i love a decent discussion once in while ... the reason i started posting replies here was to robinHoodLikeDefendingANewbie (now, what does that tell about me ...?) ...
With due respect: how can you be a builder if you do not know what the house will look like? It just amuses me how people start building "systems" and haven't got a clue what trading is about which is obvious in this case. One does not need automated stuff to make a living, indeed it is harder to make a living. Most of these "newbies" automated systems are just curvefitted and marginal stuff. Thanks for contributing to my funds. Maria
I doubt we got this far thinking this way. Perhaps, I don't know that your statement "cannot be doubted." Hehe... Now chillout and let this newbie Norm get back to developing his system. Peace
> it seems to be only the days having big dives that are unprofitable. What a coincindence! My system does that too. Do you think there is some profound reason for that? Maybe we could lobby our congressman to outlaw the big down days, he might introduce the bill: Stability and Capital Appreciation in the Markets (S.C.A.M.), the key would be to fine the big banks and brokerages every time there is a big down day. K