TS Elliot also said: "Only those who will risk going too far can possibly find out how far one can go" First you have to hit bottom then the sky is the limit...
That quote doesn't say that he who risks going to far necessarily fails. I think a more appropriate translation is more like: Reach for the sky... as high as your risk will take you.
aphie, fuck business plans, screw positive expectancy its only money.. listen to your instincts trust your proven market calls..(lol) I say BLOW IT ALL LOAD THE BOAT!! THROW CAUTION TO THE WIND!!! YEEEE HAAA!!!!
Aphe, Statistically October through to January are the best performing months in modern trading history. In fact, if you just bought in October and sold in January for the last 10 years, you would have made a hell of a lot more than if you'd held for the entire period. We've had a hell of a run up, and the market will pullback, but be prepared for the fact we probably seen the lows for the year. If you manage to see any profit on those puts, take it pretty quickly. Runningbear
I still fail to see how we had horrible numbers come out and the market shook it off while saying, "whatever," and it kept going higher. Just a month or so ago, the market kept shaking off any good news while constantly going lower. However, if IBM breaks past $75, then it will break through resistance set up by the current high (or whatever the exact number is). If that happens, I'll have to re-evaluate it. I did sell two $65 puts on IBM along with the two $70's I bought -- which helped to reduce the cost. I guess I thought paying $250 for a $1,000 profit if the market suddenly tanks before november expiration was a good trade to make based on what I thought the charts were showing. I apparently need to perfect my chart reading skills. Even if I win this trade, perhaps the method is still wrong.
I apparently need to perfect my chart reading skills. Even if I win this trade, perhaps the method is still wrong. Charts don't predict the future, they're only a tool to increase your odds of success. Too many people don't seem to understand this.
Welcome to the stock market. It is not to be "figured out", it is to be traded. Don't try and "outsmart it". Take what it gives. As far as economic numbers, there will always be different interpretations. Conflicting opinions. Let the market show you how it reacts. It is virtually impossible to anticipate what it will do, sometimes even on something as clear as an earnings warning, or earnings themselves. When the market is in a major down trend, it will receive good news poorly. And the converse is true in an up trend. Right now, it is clearly too risky to state if we have gone through a bottoming process. But perhaps the uncertainty is a good excuse for you to study more and trade less until things become more clear. This is what virtually every tenured trader I know is doing right now. Trading lightly and tentatively. Think of yourself as a little fish in a big school. Just swim with them. Don't try and lead the way. Not at your stage. Play it safe. Don't innovate. Good luck, rs7
soon become "cotton pickers". Hows your cotton picken skills Aphie? Go with the trend, and forget the tops and bottoms! Your puts will be worth little or nothin in a couple weeks.
Aphe, A lot of traders will fade this rally. A lot will start to build short positions again, but I think these guys will get hurt. You should be able to feel the dynamic changing. For what its worth I think we're forming the lip of a cup, in a cup and handle pattern. We'll pull back slightly (maybe 5% max) then take out the current high. In fact the market may even run up for a couple more days before the pullback. I don't understand why you would bother trading options. At least with futures and shares you don't have to worry about time decay. You love making life hard for yourself. Runningbear