Going Against The USD

chafro · Jul 20, 2006

EUR/USD right now, I have no idea what to do, so im not getting in it. Altho long term I think long is the good idea.

Wainting for my secret weapon pair (USD/MXN) to rebound to 10.95 - 11.10 (I know its a big range but it deppends alot of the political news in a few weeks) and short it again. I exlpain in the buy mexican peso treath what am I waiting for. I love trading my currency, I have found an edge because I get the new faster and more accurate.

And the AUD/NDZ looking for a run up, watching it close.

Ivanovich · Jul 20, 2006

Careful, looks like a double top on the AUD/NZD.

DrawDown · Jul 20, 2006

Quote from illiquid:

Ok coinz, let's stop and both be serious for a moment.

Do you want to know the *real* reason why your posts get under our skin?

It's because the way you "trade" -- your "methodology", so to speak -- is the antithesis of everything we strive to be as successful traders. I'll give you the dubious benefit of the doubt that you came up with it all on your own (from other posts I see from other fx traders, however, there seems to be a common language and vocabulary that you all share -- but for the moment I won't assume what you do is just some cookie-cutter scheme cooked up from the retail brokerage manager's handbook).

But the bottom line is: you trade like a trader who's already given up, except you must somehow find a way to stay in the game, as if a gun were to your head. You trade like a person who's told to sit at the roulette table and figure out a way to not to come out a loser, for as long as possible, while at the same time providing a semblance of "success". Your miniscule lot size (I'm talking proportionately, not nominally), which you pass off as conservative money management, is just your way of staving off the inevitable result of the repeated negative expectancy bets you place at the roulette wheel of the markets.

You say you have a system, yet all I see is a priority placed upon not wanting to be wrong. For example, you made a good call with this thread, and accurately surmised that street sentiment was tilted to the long side on USD. Yet just because you blew the handling of your short USD position, you instinctively and likely impulsively add to the long and losing side, to salvage that open loss. This isn't the first time we've seen it, and it likely won't be the last.

This is pretty much the kind of mistake all traders make when they start out, and strive to work against continually. You on the other hand, have actually found a way to systemize all the faulty instincts a beginning trader might have, in a package that on the surface might actually appear viable to the uneducated. But real progress comes when you start to trade in order to make money, rather than trading to be right.

So it's just kind of sickening to read what you continually post, when it's obvious you have no interest in self-progress, nor any desire to genuinely help others. You just sound like you're here to sell something which doesn't exist: an easy route to successful trading. I don't know what it is that's managed to convince you that your "system" works, but god knows the positive reinforcement ain't coming from the market. What you get from those that fall for it, and why you only post to FX forums when you could do exactly the same thing in much larger and more liquid markets -- well, I won't speculate any further.

But I would say you shouldn't take things too personally; it just so happens that you've managed to become the embodiment of exactly all you should *not* do if you want to succeed in this game, whether you realize it or not. The funny thing is, turn it all on its head, and you'll have everything you need to actually begin learning how to trade, rather than avoiding it in "non-trading".

It's not productive for either of us to continue posting in the same manner, so I figured I'd burn the bridges and let you go on your merry way from now on. I'll only post to you again if you reply directly to this post; otherwise, I leave you in peace. Good trading.
More...

Illiquid, let me consider all that you said... then I'll get back to you.

dd

DrawDown · Jul 20, 2006

Quote from illiquid:

Ok coinz, let's stop and both be serious for a moment.

Do you want to know the *real* reason why your posts get under our skin?

It's because the way you "trade" -- your "methodology", so to speak -- is the antithesis of everything we strive to be as successful traders. I'll give you the dubious benefit of the doubt that you came up with it all on your own (from other posts I see from other fx traders, however, there seems to be a common language and vocabulary that you all share -- but for the moment I won't assume what you do is just some cookie-cutter scheme cooked up from the retail brokerage manager's handbook).

But the bottom line is: you trade like a trader who's already given up, except you must somehow find a way to stay in the game, as if a gun were to your head. You trade like a person who's told to sit at the roulette table and figure out a way to not to come out a loser, for as long as possible, while at the same time providing a semblance of "success". Your miniscule lot size (I'm talking proportionately, not nominally), which you pass off as conservative money management, is just your way of staving off the inevitable result of the repeated negative expectancy bets you place at the roulette wheel of the markets.

You say you have a system, yet all I see is a priority placed upon not wanting to be wrong. For example, you made a good call with this thread, and accurately surmised that street sentiment was tilted to the long side on USD. Yet just because you blew the handling of your short USD position, you instinctively and likely impulsively add to the long and losing side, to salvage that open loss. This isn't the first time we've seen it, and it likely won't be the last.

This is pretty much the kind of mistake all traders make when they start out, and strive to work against continually. You on the other hand, have actually found a way to systemize all the faulty instincts a beginning trader might have, in a package that on the surface might actually appear viable to the uneducated. But real progress comes when you start to trade in order to make money, rather than trading to be right.

So it's just kind of sickening to read what you continually post, when it's obvious you have no interest in self-progress, nor any desire to genuinely help others. You just sound like you're here to sell something which doesn't exist: an easy route to successful trading. I don't know what it is that's managed to convince you that your "system" works, but god knows the positive reinforcement ain't coming from the market. What you get from those that fall for it, and why you only post to FX forums when you could do exactly the same thing in much larger and more liquid markets -- well, I won't speculate any further.

But I would say you shouldn't take things too personally; it just so happens that you've managed to become the embodiment of exactly all you should *not* do if you want to succeed in this game, whether you realize it or not. The funny thing is, turn it all on its head, and you'll have everything you need to actually begin learning how to trade, rather than avoiding it in "non-trading".

It's not productive for either of us to continue posting in the same manner, so I figured I'd burn the bridges and let you go on your merry way from now on. I'll only post to you again if you reply directly to this post; otherwise, I leave you in peace. Good trading.
More...

You mean your other posts... WEREN'T SERIOUS??? :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:

The DrawDown

Ivanovich · Jul 21, 2006

Quote from DrawDown:

Illiquid, let me consider all that you said... then I'll get back to you.

dd
More...

I'm sure he's holding his breath in anticipation.

sim03 · Jul 21, 2006

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1138614#post1138614

Ivanovich · Jul 21, 2006

Quote from sim03:

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1138614#post1138614
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LOL!!!

DrawDown · Jul 21, 2006

Quote from Ivanovich:

I never said you were dumb, Skalpz. Just clueless. There's a distinct difference.

Some of the things I do,or do not do, in my trading:

1. Always use stops. Stops are there to prevent massive market movements from taking the rug out from under you. Not using them is insane, and gambling with your account balance.

2. Never adjust your stops once you've set them, unless it is to lock in profit. When the price looks like it's going to hit your stop loss, it's emotionally tempting to remove it or move it. No one wants to take a loss. But stops exist for a reason.

3. I place my stops at lines of considerable resistance (actually a few pips beyond them). These would be MA lines, fibos, etc. Or, if I know of a particularly large option protection in the neighborhood.

4. I never average up or down UNLESS there is a significant rejection off of a resistance line in my favor. And even then, I only do it with a tight stop. Regardless, I this rarely occurs - all the stars must be aligned for me to consider doing it.

5. I never use more than 60% of my account in my trades, and no one trade is ever more than 10%. I've been thinking of tweaking that to 7%, but we'll see.

6. I never long and short the same pair for reasons discussed with you ad nauseum.

7. I do not trade the news.

8. My trades are short term technical, long term fundamental.

9. If I do not believe in the fundamental move of a trend, I do not trade that pair until I do.

10. I always listen to those with opposing viewpoints on trade direction if they have something to offer, and I dismiss the viewpoints of those who never state why they believe what they do, outside of "I just believe it".

Those are the 10 rules of my trading. Anyone here is welcome to discuss or offer improvement suggestions. Even you, Skalpz. I do not consider myself a forex god, or even an expert. I am constantly learning.

But I will say one thing about myself. I've been trading for three years now, and other than a total of 4 months, I've paid my mortgage with my monthly trades each month, as well as bought nice things for myself and my wife throughout my trading time. Last year (2005), I made more than I did at my corporate job. I think I do ok for myself.

This is probably the first and last time I will volunteer so much info about myself.
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OK... I'm back from my walk at the beach.

Let's take a look at your... "SYSTEM".

"I never said you were dumb, Skalpz. Just clueless."

Well, we'll just see how "clueless" I am..

"7. I do not trade the news."

So, in other words, what you're saying here is, when an announcement like the NFP numbers comes out, you do not open big trades above or below market, 5-minutes before the news hits?

I've tried doing that, but have never been able to get it right.

Invariably a mini-spike will hit my Limit order pointing the opposite direction then a massive 100+pt spike heading the other way will happen, taking my money a cent or more down.

So, I've given up trading the news.

dd