Discussion in 'Trading' started by bungrider, Jan 6, 2003.
Right, those include me.
what i don't get (besides about 50 other things) is how utilities are weak today (at a glance i see some that are off 1-3% today from the close yesterday) and techs are strong...
if this "ralleye" (my new word for a rally that comes back and punches you in the eye a week later) is based on a tax cut for dividends, why the hell are techs so strong (besides the EMC outlook)???
While I agree with your "ralleye" thesis, it seems as if there is a lot of money chasing performance right now. The fact that TYC is able to raise its convertible offering and the stock is holding would lead me to believe there is a lot of money pouring in.
Speaking of techs, one of the many things I do not understand about this market is how the pros continue to talk about "Tech" leading the market out of the the bear. It seems obvious to me that before tech companies can start leading anywhere but down, the bricks and mortar companies that depend on the products and services that tech offers are going to have to start doing enough business to have need of these services. At this point in the socalled economic recovery, that is just not happening! As for EMC's 2 cent/share profit last quarter, my guess would be that is the result of IT managers shooting their meager budget wads at the end of the year, a common occurrance.
the "pros" are not pros; they're just talking heads who have been in the business just long enough to see techs leading the market up, then down...
if the only thing you knew about was techs, you'd find a way to explain the market in terms of only tech stocks, too...
the funny thing is that this market from the '90s that we're left with still might be at an overbought level, considering it was stupidity that took us up to where we were...i say "might" because i have no idea about the underlying fundamentals, other than that i don't think the bushes are good for the US, neither in the short- or long-term...
Bung, I am just surmising but I believe a lot of people believe the techs will have to pay dividends instead of cash.ie microsoft. The thing is they're not taking into consideration is the stock price won't grow fast neither will the company. Even if there is an economic turn around, which I really doubt. 7 trillion dollars is a fuck of a lot of money to get wiped out. It'll take years and years just to get even.
This is almost a mirror image of last Dec/Jan. QQQ looked best on the charts, hope springs eternal or is it save a tree, eat a beaver? I forget, anyhow HLTH, SINA, SOHU all hitting new highs, give me a break. Yet SPY, DIA, IWM, MDY, UTH, ICF, PPH, EFA are all down on the day.
It is as if the past three years did not teach anyone a thing, and that is more than a little scary.
...it's all a game now, not investing anymore.
And it's pretty sad too.
But good for trading!
since no one seems to want to say it (or have the nuts to speak up), i will:
the high earners, employers and wealthy need a tax cut. i heard rush limbaugh on the radio go "on and on" about how a family earning $39,000 is gonna save $1,100 on taxes under bush's program. screw them - the morons will just use it as a down payment on a 36" TV instead of a 26" TV. hey, those folks are being dragged thru life by risk- takers and entrepreneurs.
i need a tax cut. i could expand my business and hire a couple of guys/ladies and train them and a support person too - but hey, why should i?... by the time i invest in the equipment, take time to train them, hold their hands, pay them, pay taxes if i carry them as employees(then unemployment if they dont work-out), pay higher tax rate due to higher income and then account for added liabilities of trainees, i can do better on my own. something like marginal productivity or return (econ 101). and id need to rent office space again or buy a small building. been there done that!
i can earn a very good living as a consultant working out of a spare bedroom and there is no carrot to go hiring anyone if its gonna raise my taxes/tax rates. so there i said it - if you want business to expand and provide employment, services and yes - TAX DOLLARS - you are gonna have to give tax breaks to the folks that create jobs, not the smoes that apply for and fill them!
im going the other way, increasing investment income and working less and trading more.... 80-hour (or more) weeks get kinda old when you are eyeballing the big FIVE-ZERO ("50") and i get the squirts every april 15th and when i go to the grocery store and see able-bodied people paying for their food with food stamps - WTF? .... so there you have it: QQQBalls economic stimulus package.
I don't see how an unbalanced budget can be considered a tax cut. I have a buddy who just lost a 100K a year consulting gig. So my advice to him is get a platinum card with a 100k line of credit and bingo it is just like you still have the job.
That doesn't make financial sense to anyone, but that is the same BS that is being jammed down the public's throat. In 1982 Regan cut taxes, four years later in 1986 all those cuts and then some were taken back, plus the national debt had doubled. And it had quadrupled by the time he left office.
gov't Debt = Taxes, any way you slice it.
I'm all for lower taxes, but our government needs to get its shit together.
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