GoCs 'scalping' journal

i used google to translate this into market language but it didn't work
so i am left without an answer..
now wait a minute, a perfect way would be to wait till gurus proclaim the market should go the opposite direction / might take some time though /..the question remains does it have to be the same guru you base your prediction on / he might get sick or die in a plane crash / ?
hope you will manage somehow

 

Cutten and I have <b>already</b> taken quite a few shekels out of the feared widow-maker, so afaic the score is already Cutten 1, Krugman 0.

nb- Besides the 'widow-maker', can anyone think of any other single trade that has a cool 'street name' like that? I can't even think of one.

 

FYI from my morning Ransquawk summary:

The Bank of Japan are to stem the recent rout in JGBs with a significant fund injection this Friday, offering to pump JPY 2.8trl in the final session of the week. (Newswires) The offer is more than three times the size usually offered in a single day.

I took note because I would like to be short ZB on some kind of test, and this might be it.

 

Thanks for that. That announcement must have come out during the 90 minute lunch break, in the middle of the Japanese JGB trading session, because the entire market tone changed after that.

 

I found it in the US Opening News for this morning. I took a look at the European Opening News and there is no reference. So my guess is the timing was between 0100 and 0700 CT.

 

The wording of the following article, coupled with the change in market tone after the Japanese lunch break leads me to believe that it actually came out last night, between 21:00 and 22:30 CT. But I could always be wrong.

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/080b7d52-bd2b-11e2-a735-00144feab7de.html#axzz2TOnXVRdA

" ...yields on 10-year JGBs rose for the fourth straight session, briefly reaching 0.92 per cent – the highest level since April 2012. <b>But yields fell after the BoJ move</b>, dipping to 0.866 per cent by 4pm in Tokyo"

Edit: You know what? That link refuses to work unless you access the article through google. I'll just paste the whole thing here, as I'm sure at least someone wants to read it:

Bank of Japan acts to stem rising JGB yields

By Josh Noble in Hong Kong

Japan’s five-year borrowing costs rose above Germany’s on Wednesday for the first time in more than 20 years, after liquidity concerns caused a fresh spike in Japanese Government Bond yields.

During the Asian trading session, yields on five-year JGBs rose as high as 0.45 per cent, compared with 0.40 per cent for Bunds with similar duration. Data compiled by Bloomberg showed this had not happened since at least the 1980s.


If the move proves to be sustained, both local and international investors could now look to JGBs in the global hunt for yield – a swift reversal of fortunes for Japanese debt.

“[It’s] hard to see why any Japanese investors would want to buy Bunds instead of JGBs at this level, especially considering the yen depreciation,” said Patrick Perret-Green, a macro-strategist at Mint Partners, in a note to clients. “Conversely, for those in global bond funds, switching a bit into rarely touched JGBs doesn’t seem like a bad idea.”

The sharp rise in government bond yields also prompted the Bank of Japan to step in on Wednesday to calm the market.

The BoJ will pump Y2.8tn ($28bn) into the money market this Friday to “address the rapid increase in longer-term interest rates”, said a bank official. The central bank conducted a similar-sized operation over a five-day period in April.

Earlier in the day, yields on 10-year JGBs rose for the fourth straight session, briefly reaching 0.92 per cent – the highest level since April 2012. But yields fell after the BoJ move, dipping to 0.866 per cent by 4pm in Tokyo.

Yields on two-year JGBs have also risen sharply in recent days, hitting 0.14 per cent on Wednesday for the first time since 2011, having been at only 0.042 per cent at the start of April.

The BoJ official said the central bank was surprised that rates in the one-to-two year band had jumped, and that such moves were more likely to be influenced by “misunderstandings” about the BoJ’s commitment to keeping the market flooded with liquidity, rather than changes to inflation expectations.

As part of a broader plan to tackle long-entrenched deflation, the BoJ in April promised to buy about Y8tn of JGBs per month, equivalent to roughly 70 per cent of new issuance. That has in turn crimped liquidity in the bond market, said Noriatsu Tanji, Japan credit strategist at Barclays, making bond yields more sensitive to newsflow – such as US economic data or changes in US Treasury yields – than before.

Mr Noriatsu added that while the BoJ operation was bigger than previous similar moves, it did not mark a “big change” in terms of policy.

Despite the recent spate of JGB selling, Japanese borrowing costs remain among the lowest in the world. However, the BoJ is likely to keep a close eye on the market, said analysts at BNY Mellon, due to previous experience, such as the rapid sell-off in 2003 when yields jumped from 0.5 per cent to 1.6 per cent in less than three months.

Concerns about the recent sell-off in government debt prompted Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe to tell a parliamentary session that the government was watching the market closely, and that he expected the BoJ to “respond appropriately”.

The volatility in the bond market failed to dent sentiment for equities – which rose strongly once again, continuing a rally now six months long. After an increase of 2.3 per cent on the day, the Nikkei 225 closed at 15,096 – its first close above 15,000 since December 2007. Meanwhile the yen also fell against the US dollar, reaching Y102.4.

Analysts at Société Générale said in a note to clients that equities were likely to lose some steam, even with further currency weakness. “Our models show that the equity market is already pricing in a level close to Y110 for the yen, and in our opinion, the Nikkei rally is due for a breather.”

 

Translation - wait til your opponent is metaphorically beaten to within an inch of his life, then rip his spine out to complete the perfect flawless victory. I.e. when his prediction has been totally crushed and destroyed, and that market view's credibility is in tatters, administer the coup de grace by covering your position.

 

Thanks for the news update. A proper bear market should shrug off bullish news within a few days, and then move back down to new lows. Besides, the BoJ was buying bonds at 146, 145, 144 and that didn't stop it falling to 141 yesterday. So, I am not too concerned for now. If I am correct, the market should trade lower before hitting my stop.

And yes I made some decent profits, but my ambitions are to call out long multi-month/year moves of epic proportions, not to swing trade a few points here and there. So, it's still 0-0 on both attempts, and I will not claim any scalps until they have been genuinely earned beyond dispute.

Anyway, I would like this to be a very sporadic journal, with post frequency better suited to long-term moves, rather than focus on short-term volatility. I will therefore not update further unless one of my calls is proven right or wrong, or I come up with a new potential target.

 

Just exited my gold shorts. I hereby claim my first scalp - Mr John Paulson! More updates to come, I'm kinda busy trading this shit.

 

Price? Size? You know, those things that are missing from other journals that you have such a problem with. I am certain that price = LOD and that size = 500% of net liq.