GMCR, You've Got Some Splaining To Do

Discussion in 'Stocks' started by lwlee, Oct 19, 2011.

  1. lwlee

    lwlee

    This explains the dump today.
    GAAP-uccino

    Page 91, Field Interviews

    - It was difficult to understand how GMCR sold the extra $100 million of K-cups in the June 2011 Quarter

    It was alleged in a class action lawsuit filed earlier this year (1):
    “CW1 [Confidential Witness One] indicated that GMCR improperly recognized revenue on 150 truck loads of product that was shipped to MBlock during the quarter ended December 26, 2009. This former GMCR manager stated that he/she and other Company employees, including the Company's global transportation manager, were unable to locate the requisite paperwork, including purchase orders, material requisition orders, or product shipment authorizations, traditionally used by GMCR to validate the sale.
    Specifically, CW1 indicated that because there was no order for those products, no payment was ever made on the 150-truckload shipment. In addition, the order was not listed on the Company's production forecast schedule and employees who worked under CW1 not only saw the trucks go out, but visited MBlock and saw its warehouses filled to the rafters with K-cups. CW1, who estimated that the value the revenue recognized on the foregoing improperly recorded transaction to be between $7.5 and $15 million dollars…”

    In an effort to determine whether the recent strong results were driven by similar behavior, we interviewed several former GMCR and MBlock workers
    • The workers tell consistent stories and paint an unflattering picture of the companies
    • The research shows that Green Mountain and MBlock are potentially engaged in a variety of shenanigans that appear designed to mislead auditors and to inflate financial results

    Both GMCR and MBlock use sub-standard IT systems. Important functions including inventory management are performed in Excel spreadsheets which are easy to change, provide non-standardized analysis, and are prone to material error.
    • Suggestions to improve operations through the use of technology are met with resistance inside both organizations
    • The Accounting Department at GMCR uses many temporary workers and makes extensive use of college “co-op” students instead of hiring full time accountants
    • Former workers believe that though no reason was given, they were fired for asking too many questions

    Bonuses were based on overall K-cup production, rather than on total revenue/sales This has led to excess production and related inventory and spoilage problems
    • There is a lot of cross-shipping. Product is transferred from one facility to another, often multiple times PeopleSoft function to fulfill orders from multiple locations was never implemented Deliberate overproduction of K-cups and refusal to ship from multiple locations gave cover for a “shell game that Green Mountain was playing across all its facilities.” “We would do more transferring of inventory than we physically did shipping… Keurig would ship stuff to themselves, I mean truckloads of stuff they’d ship [from MBlock] to themselves.”

    Peculiar relationship between GMCR and its distributors
    “It was clear that Keurig and Green Mountain control MBlock.”
    “Nobody in that warehouse can tell you what is MBlock’s, what is Keurig, what is Green Mountain’s, nobody can tell you that. I honestly don’t think the owner of MBlock can tell you that.”
    • Odd material movements at distributors
    Kenco trucker allegedly reported delivering merchandise to Kenco, picking it up later on, sealing the truck, and delivering it 10 bay doors down at the same warehouse

    Excess production…
    “… he was the manager of demand planning. And consistently, his e-mails would talk about how far over the demand forecast actual production was.”
    • Led to a significant problem with expired coffee MBlock received truckloads of expired coffee directly from Green Mountain
    Channel checks have identified significant amounts of retail product with short shelf-life, and at times even expired product
    “These plant managers just kept on saying they have space taken up by the inordinate amount of expired coffee.”
    “I would have to say at least one third of their warehouse is more than likely expired coffee in all the warehouses.”

    Irregularities during external inventory audits at MBlock
    Prior to the inventory audit, “We would remove product and preload trailer trucks to ship to retailers because we didn’t have room on the floor. Then we’d load more product on trailer trucks to nowhere to move it off the floor.”
    The warehouse was partially cleared prior to an audit, leaving a skeleton inventory of ~50%. Inventory was loaded onto trucks, which sat in the docks and was never counted. Sometimes after the audit, the product would simply be moved back into the warehouse.
    Immediately prior to an audit, 500,000 brewers were inventoried and processed as an order for QVC. The brewers were never shipped, and after the audit, the inventory was restocked.
     
  2. lwlee

    lwlee

  3. Interesting but Einhorns short case is barely about fraud and more about valuation.
     
  4. lwlee

    lwlee

    Down 23 points (-33%).

    Lucy!!!!!
     
  5. there is an article somewhere on clusterstock about this gives Einhorns 100 page presentation too lazy to look it up. This was public information a month ago. I like the part about moving the coffee from storage building a to storage building b to avert the auditor, good times!:D
     
  6. well f&*k me I didn't see the link right on the first post, good read that!!
     
  7. "Prior to the inventory audit, “We would remove product and preload trailer trucks to ship to retailers because we didn’t have room on the floor. Then we’d load more product on trailer trucks to nowhere to move it off the floor.”
    The warehouse was partially cleared prior to an audit, leaving a skeleton inventory of ~50%. Inventory was loaded onto trucks, which sat in the docks and was never counted. Sometimes after the audit, the product would simply be moved back into the warehouse.
    Immediately prior to an audit, 500,000 brewers were inventoried and processed as an order for QVC. The brewers were never shipped, and after the audit, the inventory was restocked."

    You can't make this shit up. God bless the field auditors, what a thankless job these poor bastards have.
     
  8. been saying for years that the kcup biz was a scam

    imprisoning $5 a lb coffee in plastic and charging $35 a lb for it is not a biz model

    wtf were you thinking?
     
  9. NoDoji

    NoDoji

    No different from imprisoning a fraction of a cent worth of carbonated sugar water in a .05 aluminum can and charging .50 for it. Been a rock solid business model for years.

    What was with that 120+ P/E ratio they had going not long ago? I figured the K-Cups were a cure for both cancer and erectile dysfunction the way that stock price was running after the split.

    HANS has a P/E of 20; KO just 12 and they pay a dividend.

    I guess those K-Cups were the tulip craze of our decade :eek:
     
  10. I think you're significantly underestimating how much it costs.
     
    #10     Nov 9, 2011