If you read the Oversold stocks thread, I posted GMCR when it was a little over $63. http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=185109
Cyber, I read that thread and didn't even look at GMCR! Shame on me! It's giving me the jitters again, though. I mentioned to my trading roomies that GMCR trades at a P/E you'd expect from a biotech that had a pending cure for cancer. Then it occurred to me: Maybe Green Mountain coffee DOES cure cancer!
It has reached it's all time high (could be a double top) and is also at the top of it's trending channel. Tried to post the chart but it would not copy.
I set alerts to short this thing @ 79.00 twice and didn't heed the trade. Maybe third time's the charm.
I bought GMCR at $64 recently, and just sold my position yesterday at $77. Was kind of hard to sell, and then I missed almost an extra buck by late in the day....but it just seemed like too much appreciation too quickly on no news. My position was hedged with Jan puts -- I have some $70s and $65s. I decided to hold on to the puts on the chance that there is some profit taking to the down side. Maybe I'll get lucky both ways hehe.
I hope everyone who looks at a 1 year chart of GMCR realizes that it split 3:2 a typical Wallst banker adviced ratio to keep us confused then later they issued 10% extra shares.. hence it has been diluted twice.. all thanks to super advice from Wall st ,bankers. still it has been shooting up like crazy.. well, lets see where this guy can run up to this time.. we have all heard. " this time its different" ha ha
I, too, am still in wait-n-watch mode, and I said to my husband, "GMCR is making new highs again. I'm watching it for a short entry to ride the retrace to the 20 MA." (In fact, the majority of the time it breaks down the 20.) And he rolls his eyes at me and says, "The last two times you said this, you never shorted it and you whined about missing a great short both times. Why don't you just start shorting 100 shares at a time and if you end up with 1000 shares before it finally reverses, then that's all the better!" I'm starting to think that may be the only way I ever pull off a nice short trade on this thing. (Still mad I never rode this one up from the oversold state.)
GMCR has the tendency to go up/down huge. At this point RSI is over 78.4, highest ever for this stock. It went up $20 in 3 weeks. People do take profit and stocks do retrace. Before I short I ask myself: would I buy at this price or wait for a pull back. If the answer is to wait then I begin to short.
BTW, I am selling Jan 85 naked calls. lets see if I am correct. they should start to peter out by 7-8 th Jan. if this beast runs up, then all bets are off!!