I saw GMCR hitting the high ticker again past couple days and gave it another look. I see that within 2 1/2 weeks from my original post price pulled back to 51.65 (pre-split equivalent 77.50), lower than I expected once it broke the post gap trend line. So here it is again at 52-week highs, having tested 72.00 (pre-split equivalent 108.00) on both Thursday and Friday and pulled back slightly each time. With 2009 earnings estimates @ 1.13 and 2010 earnings estimates @ 1.75, how much further upside can there be to this stock? They're riding the popularity of Keurig one-cup coffee/tea makers. I'm well aware that what goes up must come down, and the "strong buy" darlings one quarter can be in the toilet in a matter of days (HOTT, SYNA, MYGN). I initiated a swing short on HOTT too early last quarter and took a hefty loss, so I wouldn't want a repeat with GMCR. Not having been an active trader during the rise and fall of CROX, I have no feel for how irrational buyers can get before the frenzy subsides. I can only look at the CROX chart and notice that leading into its fantastic high of 73.75 and subsequent crash, it looked a whole lot like GMCR does right now (see attached).
GMCR is riding on I dunno what? selling Coffee machines and pods they cost 9.88 plus tax for 20 pods in walmart Just ask around.if you live in USA, do u see any signs of their explosive growth. This thing should be ubiquitious by now and we shud not only see it with our acquaintances, we should see it being increasingly being adopted. something on the lines of ipod and iphone.. The P/E of 50 + is unjustified.. crash is inevitable ADD to insult.. what was the DAMN reason to split 3:2 adding to the subterfuge...! since I was used to the range of pre split shares, I have to keep making calculations.. how come they dont split it. 2 for 1. or in some easy ratio.. or just let it be . See GOOG . let the stock rise.. is it that they assume we are stupid enough to not know the difference. ha ha.
and that too on the diluted shares.. 3:2.. plus additional 10% dilution they later announced ... if u were trading GMCR when it was in the 30 to 40s range. ie. b4 may.. then the ADJUSTED PRICE is like 125 THIS IS A SUPER SCREAMING SHORT. but I dont have the guts to short At the money.. i did short its out of the money calls last month 80 strike . expired worthless.. this month. too early.. let only 7-9 trading days be left. then I will sell NOv OTM calls...
I agree, the OTM call strategy is a solid one as we get closer to exp. This one also seems to be a strong buy on any significant breach of the trend line. It rallied hard off the $54 area last time it looked like the trend was over.
Here's one for ya... BVSN :eek: :eek: :eek: . This stock alone is the poster child of irrational exuberance to the extreme! Back then (late 90s) is around the time when I began trading and was in and out of it several times along with numerous others that were similar in unsupported fundamentals. What sticks with me to this day about this company is that I 'wish' I knew then what I know now.
Did not see the bounce off 60 coming, believe it was going lower, miss this one big time, Sonnnnnnn of a Bitch !!!!!!