GlobalFinancier's Picks

Discussion in 'Journals' started by GlobalFinancier, Dec 9, 2005.

  1. I'll aggregate my picks into one thread.
    What I will do here, is to post my outlook, and outlook on industries, and finally post a stock that I like and the reasons.
    Disclaimer: Any recommendations made in this thread ought not to be taken as recommendations for buying. Consequences due to trading with any material in this thread will solely be the responsibility of the reader.
    I won't post here very often. I'm a position trader and I'll stick to it. Short term swing trading and swing trading aren't what I'm good at.

    Outlook for markets in the short term: neutral for the next few days
    Outlook for the markets in the next few months: Bullish on Nasdaq breakout of bearish wedge
    Important events: FOMC on Dec 13.

    Bullish sectors:
    Semiconductors(consolidating)
    Oil& Natural Gas(time to buy)
    Oil broke above $60 a few days ago, but ended below $60 today. No obvious reason, but resistance above.
    Oil has broken out of a channel and is bullish.
    Gold, silver and Platnium(overextended) These are bullish for many reasons, but are too overextended as off now, though I'm still bullish on them.


    Picks:
    DIOD(Semiconductor stock, very strong fundamentals, great growth, breakout of a base and consolidation now)
    CVX(Oil blue chip with strong growth. Still consolidating after breakout of rectangle bottom. Partial decline during the consolidation period implies strong gain)
    APC(Oil&gas company, good fundamentals, near a double bottom breakout)
    CFK(Speculative small cap. Breakout of base and big retracement today, bullish)

    Exit Strategy: Stops below 10% on entry.
     
  2. A few additions which I forgot in my last post.
    TRP
    Strong growth. Bullish technicals. Sister stock of natural gas stocks.
    NJR
    ADX bullish cross. Small double bottom. Break above 65 day MA.
    Resistance above but bullish as whole industry(gas) is bullish.
     
  3. DIOD open:
    28.67
    CVX open:
    59.16
    APC open:
    98.55
    CFK open:
    13.82
    TRP open:
    31.82
    NKR open:
    44.45

    Oil broke above $60 again, gold fell $526. Down $18 from top.
    Outlook for indices flat this week.
    FOMC decides rates today, should be interesting.
     
  4. BPT.
    High yield trust, H&S.
    Seems very bullish to me.
     
  5. Long BSIC.
    Exponential earnings growth.
    20% ownership by insiders.
    Tiny market cap.
    ADX and MACD bull cross. MACD bullish divergence.
    And it's an OIL stock.
    I like it. Delayed quotes tell me it's 2.24 now. So we'll assume I'll get it at 2.25(oil increase to $61.6 already factored in prices)
    Warning: VERY speculative.
    APC. Oil and gas stock. Great fundamentals, Big W breakout.
    $100.95 is INET real time price now.
     
  6. So far so good.
    Long gold. Feb contracts at $504 now. I think a strong gain will be seen soon as it is at support.
    Long NEM.
     
  7. Chinese markets bullish.
    Long FXI PGJ and SNP(H&S)
     
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  8. Medical sector bullish: Medical stocks watchlist
    CCEL
    ZMH
    MDT
    CASM
    MDCI
    BMET
    BDX
    BVX
    LH
     
  9. Nasdaq turns bearish. I'm mildly bearish, at least for now.
    It seems that oil has been unable to confirm its bullishness.
    Sell APC.
    I'm going to wait for one more day to see if there's a bullish engulfing... That's a very lucrative pattern and I think there's like a 30-40% chance of it happening. Not good odds, but we'll see what happens.
    EDIT:Speculatively long ZMH and MDT. Breakouts but market is bearish... Very tight stops set. Also short DOW. Chemicals industry seems bad. DOW bear flag, break below 65 day MA, ADX bear signal.
     
  10. Chadwick

    Chadwick

    What was your indication for bullishness in NG? I'm long several securities, and I have calls/puts in some riding shorter-term trends that have been profitable (so far). I experienced heavy drawdown in my equities and calls after the NG drawdown starting about a week ago.

    Thoughts?
     
    #10     Dec 20, 2005