Global Warming Studies Full of Hot Air

Discussion in 'Politics' started by Arnie, Jul 28, 2006.

  1. Arnie


    Global warming may not be force in storms

    A report raised doubts about studies that seem to show hurricanes are growing stronger because of global warming while not taking into account better tracking.

    The Miami Herald

    Studies that link global warming to an increase in hurricane ferocity might be full of hot air, according to a research paper that will be published today in a major scientific journal.

    The paper, co-written by Chris Landsea of the National Hurricane Center in West Miami-Dade, challenges earlier findings that hurricanes have grown more powerful in the past 30 years.

    It says those studies failed to account for technological improvements that now produce more accurate -- and often higher -- estimates of a storm's power than were available in the past.

    'If you say, `Hey, the number of Category 4 and 5 storms has doubled since 1970,' you have to ask where is that coming from and can we accept that as true,'' said Landsea, one of the nation's leading hurricane researchers, who now serves as science and operations officer at the hurricane center.

    His answer: Probably not, because the databases used for historical studies are so skewed.

    Set for publication in today's edition of the journal Science, the study extends a multifaceted scientific debate that grows more heated every few months.

    On one side are scientists who say they have found statistical evidence that the accumulated power of hurricanes around the world has dramatically increased in the past 30 years, largely because of global warming.

    On the other side are Landsea and other scientists who say, yes, global warming is real, but its effect on hurricanes is not at all clear.

    ''It's the data sets that are faulty,'' Landsea said.

    This branch of the debate began in August 2005 when Kerry Emanuel, a reputable climatologist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, analyzed historical wind-speed reports by the hurricane center and concluded that the accumulated power of hurricanes in the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico had more than doubled since 1970.

    A particularly steep increase began in 1995, according to that study.

    ''The large upswing in the last decade is unprecedented and probably reflects the effect of global warming,'' Emanuel wrote in his report, which was published in the journal Nature.

    Several other reports have pointed in the same direction, but it is important to note that all such studies focus on the power of hurricanes.

    No connection has been found between global warming and the number of hurricanes. Many scientists believe that the current period of hyperactivity is caused mostly by long-term natural cycles unrelated to global warming.

    Landsea agreed that the accumulated power of Atlantic hurricanes has increased, but said that was largely because the natural cycle has produced more storms. He said the accumulated power of hurricanes has remained constant elsewhere in the world, casting doubt on global warming as a cause in the Atlantic.

    He and his team also agreed that global warming might be enhancing hurricane winds, but only by 1 percent or 2 percent, which is nearly impossible to measure and represents a much lower rate than Emanuel suggested.

    More to the point, Landsea said, scientists who do not account for vast improvements in technology since the 1970s can produce flawed studies.

    One example cited by Landsea focuses on a 1970 storm that killed more than 300,000 people in Bangladesh. Using the technology available at that time and place, forecasters were unable to estimate that storm's intensity. Now, with improved technology, that storm likely would be rated as the equivalent of a Category 4 or 5 hurricane.

    ''It's not even being counted as a hurricane,'' Landsea said. ``If you miss that one, it shouldn't be shocking if you're missing a whole bunch of others that didn't even hit land.''

    In 1975, only two geostationary satellites monitored hurricanes.

    Now, eight more powerful satellites serve in that capacity, often prompting forecasters to produce higher wind estimates than might have been reported for a similar storm in the past.

    'More satellites with improved imagery mean that you get `stronger' hurricanes without the hurricanes changing at all,'' Landsea said.
  2. I thought you said you wanted to stop on this topic. :confused:
  3. Arnie


    Just pointing out that some of the studies may not be as reliable as some think. I read the article in this mornings paper. That's the only reason I posted.
  4. Are conservatives supposed to believe the media?:confused:
  5. bsmeter



    <a href=""><img src="" border="0" alt="Image Hosted by" /></a>;_ylu=X3oDMTBiMW04NW9mBHNlYwMlJVRPUCUl

    Utilities paying global warming skeptic

    By SETH BORENSTEIN, AP Science Writer
    Thu Jul 27, 2:39 PM ET

    WASHINGTON - Coal-burning utilities are passing the hat for one of the few remaining scientists skeptical of the global warming harm caused by industries that burn fossil fuels. ADVERTISEMENT

    Pat Michaels — Virginia's state climatologist, a University of Virginia professor and senior fellow at the libertarian Cato Institute — told Western business leaders last year that he was running out of money for his analyses of other scientists' global warming research. So last week, a Colorado utility organized a collection campaign to help him out, raising at least $150,000 in donations and pledges.

    The Intermountain Rural Electric Association of Sedalia, Colo., gave Michaels $100,000 and started the fund-raising drive, said Stanley Lewandowski, IREA's general manager. He said one company planned to give $50,000 and a third plans to give Michaels money next year.

    "We cannot allow the discussion to be monopolized by the alarmists," Lewandowski wrote in a July 17 letter to 50 other utilities. He also called on other electric cooperatives to launch a counterattack on "alarmist" scientists and specifically
    Al Gore's movie "An Inconvenient Truth."
  6. bsmeter


    Damn the crazy swiss. Mapping the Alps when global warming does'nt exist!;_ylu=X3oDMTBiMW04NW9mBHNlYwMlJVRPUCUl

    Swiss map permafrost after signs Alps crumbling

    ZURICH (Reuters) - Switzerland has carried out its first ever survey of permafrost -- the frozen soil that keeps its mountains glued together -- as evidence mounts that global warming may trigger natural disasters in the Alps. ADVERTISEMENT

    Permafrost, found in mountains as well as in Arctic regions, was slowly thawing, the government's environment office said, increasing the risk of rockfalls and mudslides threatening farmers, villages and tourists.

    "The gradual melting of permafrost in the Alps is a consequence of climate warming. The example of permafrost shows that Switzerland, as an Alpine nation, is heavily affected," the office said in a statement.

    The country would also see changes to precipitation patterns, an increasing number of floods and a steady retreat of glaciers, with some disappearing altogether, hurting the country's tourism industry.

    A rockslide killed a German couple driving on the Gotthard motorway earlier this year and floods last summer killed six people in Switzerland and its neighbors while hundreds had to flee their homes.
  7. ==============================

    Good headline Arnie.

    Nice livestock picture.:p

    That first sentence is the most innacurate sentence i have seen all month;
    its simply untrue, NOT EVEN close:cool: