Here's the article on Goldman warehousing aluminum. http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/07/29/us-lme-warehousing-idUSTRE76R3YZ20110729 And oil tankers. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil-storage_trade
ok, that's not a prediction I'm willing to bet against. You're probably right. Should be a good market for an astute trader. I'm too old for this shit, plus trading crude is very expensive. I'm just a little itty bitty guy. But I like debating where it will go. We should probably bet on the ATR, that would be more fun. otherwise, did you read the article and what is your opinion? My opinion is just as he stated it, Goldman drove it up and left it to little guys like me. Laugh if you want, everything I know about crude I learned from a glass screen, the same way I know everything about Iran.
to clarify, it never ceases to amaze me how adamant my opinions can be based on nothing more than what came across my glass screen. and to be honest with you, I'm not even sure it is glass. But if I saw it, and especially if they have some photos, I can gurrandamnteeyou I will have an opinion. Ask me anything about the middle east. I have seen all the photos of them shooting machine guns up in the air, so I think I pretty much know what I am talking about. For that matter, ask me anything about any current event and I will have an opinion on it based on nothing more than what I saw on TV. better start getting informed and start watching the right TV channels. There's a lot of shit going on out there and you won't know it unless you start watching TV.
Was it Keynes who made a comment about basing his investment decisions by fading the headlines he'd read in the morning paper while sipping coffee in bed? He died a wealthy philanthropist, might be something to it... Hell, I don't know nothing, either, OT. Just a small fish trying to avoid getting eaten by bigger fish or getting fried over an open flame by some guy who saw an episode of Hillbilly Handfishin' and thought it'd be cool to try it for himself. Just have a feeling my kids are going to be a transitional generation, and my grandkids are going to be dealing with a situation quite different from the never-ending-growth fantasy of a world I/we grew up in...
well, first of all, there are many members of my community that are missing a finger due to the fact that it is not always catfish that hang out in those holes but also snapping turtles, and secondly the concept of never ending growth is very complex. Apparently the universe understands it, but it has yet to be proven or captured in a capitalistic form. but thirdly, If you really read Keynes, he was very down to earth, and many of the quotes attributed to him are taken way out of context. Yes he believed in government intervention and deficeit spending, but that was only when times were hard. In good times (like we had in the 90's) he believed in higher taxes and reduced government spending and saving up again for the inevitable hard times to come. otherwise, as almost always I completely agree with you, you actually know what you are talking about, my job is to just post bullshit and see if I can glean any information from the outraged response.
http://www.wikinvest.com/commodity/Oil#Spot_Prices_versus_Futures_Prices " Why Oil Prices Rise or Fall outlook stresses increased output According to the IEA, global output of crude needs to increase significantly in 2011 in order to meet faster-than-expected oil demand growth.[23] In its January report, the IEA increased estimated demand for 2010 and 2011 by 320,00 barrels/day.[24] As of January 2011, the IEA predicts a rise in demand of 1.4 million barrels a day in 2011 compared to estimated 2010 levels.[25] The direct consequence of tighter oil supplies is higher crude prices; a consequence the IEA believes will stymie the global economy.[26] According to the IEA, if oil prices reach and remain at $100/barrel in 2011, global expenditures have the potential of rising to 5% of GDP, a level associated with economic problems in the past. The IEA plans to pressure OPEC to lift its production ceiling as a result of these findings, but OPEC has disagreed with the IEA's predictions.[27] While the IEA believes that global inventories are not sufficient to meet demand without an increase in production levels, OPEC believes the IEA's estimates of inventories are incorrect and does not expect as drastic an increase in demand relative to supply as the IEA does. Nevertheless, global production levels have the potential of being crucial to the price stability of crude oil in 2011.[28] Supply Shocks Production Cuts The global oil supply is dependent on the ability of oil companies to produce and the willingness of oil-exporting countries to export. Historically, periods of oil price spikes have been caused by oil-exporting countries placing embargoes on certain countries. In 1973, for example, the world's largest oil cartel, OPEC, placed an embargo on oil exports to the Netherlands and the United States, in response to the countries' support of Israel in the Yom Kippur War; the price of oil acquired by refiners increased by approximately 100%, and the U.S. experienced widespread shortages.[29] In 2007, however, despite a 57% increase in prices, the amount of oil exported by the world's top exporters fell 2.5%. Demand for oil in the world's six largest exporters (Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Iran, Kuwait, Iraq and Qatar) increased by more than 300,000 barrels, while their exports fell by over half a million barrels.[30] In this case, growing demand in each company acted as a natural embargo, forcing them to meet their own needs before exporting to the rest of the world. Violence Against Producers Violence in unstable regions can cause oil prices to be volatile because of geopolitical events affecting the ability of upstream oil companies to produce. Terrorist and political attacks can damage drilling rigs or the transportation and refining networks -- including pipelines, shipping facilities, and refineries -- that bring oil from where it is extracted to the consumer. During the spring of 2008, for example, Nigerian rebels initiated attacks on the oil majors' pipelines and deepwater drilling rigs in the country. Despite the fact that OPEC's lead producer, Saudi Arabia, announced it would increase production by 2%, a rebel attack on one of Shell's deepwater rigs sent prices to $136.[31] Weather Strong hurricane seasons can damage offshore oil platforms, reducing the amount of oil produced. Supply can also be artificially reduced or increased by government taxes or subsidies on oil production. they can also have a adverse affet on infrastructure, restricting levels of supply Transportation Bottlenecks When there are problems with the pipelines that transport oil, it can't get to market; this effectively reduces the supply of crude oil to the world's refiners, causing the supply of refined products to fall. When supplies fall, prices rise. On March 28th, 2008, the day after the bombing of one of Iraq's primary export charges, Brent crude rose on the London exchange by $1.01.[32] ... References ↑ Fast Facts About Coal ↑ RigZone: Offshore Rig Day Rates Page, Accessed May 05, 2008 ↑ Energy Current: "Deepwater rig day rates hit new high", November 9th, 2007 ↑ IHT: "Landfill sites are being viewed as mines with buried riches" ↑ SeekingAlpha: Stocks to Watch if Crude Oil Heats Up ↑ zFacts: "Crude Oil Prices Drive up Cost of U.S. Addiction" ↑ zFacts: "Current Gas Prices and Price History" ↑ BBC News: " Oil dips to $121 as reserves grow" ↑ zFacts: "Current Gas Prices and Price History" ↑ Kiplinger: "Southwest Airlines: Best of the Worst" ↑ Research and Recap: "High Oil Prices Eroding Asian Manufacturing Advantage" ↑ Cheaper Petrol Party: Glossary ↑ Energy Bulletin: "Shell, Exxon tap expensive oil sands & gas, oil reserves dwindle." ↑ Cheaper Petrol Party: Glossary ↑ BBC: " Oil markets explained" ↑ Ezine Articles: "The Changing Meaning Of Oil Price Benchmarks" ↑ Wikipedia: Brent Crude ↑ Wikipedia: West Texas Intermediate ↑ Ezine Articles: "The Changing Meaning Of Oil Price Benchmarks" ↑ Wikipedia: Dubai Crude" ↑ OPEC: Basket ↑ 22.0 22.1 22.2 22.3 Daly, Sean, "Graham Corp.: In the Sweet Spot of the Energy Bull-Market," SeekingAlpha.com, January 10, 2011 ↑ WSJ: IEA: Oil Output Needs to Increase, January 2011 ↑ WSJ: IEA: Oil Output Needs to Increase, January 2011 ↑ WSJ: IEA: Oil Output Needs to Increase, January 2011 ↑ WSJ: IEA: Oil Output Needs to Increase, January 2011 ↑ WSJ: IEA: Oil Output Needs to Increase, January 2011 ↑ WSJ: IEA: Oil Output Needs to Increase, January 2011 ↑ Wikipedia: "1973 oil crisis" ↑ The Wall Street Journal: "Oil Exporters Are Unable To Keep Up With Demand" ↑ The Independent: "Oil continues to rise as Nigerian rebels attack Shell platform 120 miles offshore" ↑ BBC: " Oil hits $108 on pipeline blast" ↑ [1] ↑ MarketWatch: "Is offshore drilling a viable solution to energy needs?" ↑ The Independent: "Saudi King: 'We will pump more oil'" ↑ WSJ: "Limits Put on Some Oil Contracts On ICE Amid Outcry Over Prices" ↑ MarketWatch: "Squandered opportunities?" 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