I'm down quite a bit on my BRKB purchases. But frankly I'm thinking of buying more. Stock is at GAAP book value, the true book value(What buffett calls intrinsic value, IValue) is quite a bit higher and that should grow by, say, 10%-13% a year(Historically is has done much better but Buffett says it won't be the same), add a recession and slow GDP growth and that could go down to 5-7%, seems pretty decent given that the margin of safety is high But given that the stock sells at the decent discount to IValue the actual return will be higher given that in order to keep the ratio stable the stock will have to run more than IValue And I'm not even factoring in that the stock could reach IValue(expand PB ratios), which it historically has done
Its very easy to overestimate the probabilities of those events when stocks are down a lot and the VIX is high. It was one of my lessons from 2008 -When the VIX is high, don't trust opinions, even your own. Look at the numbers and make rational decisions. Its very easy to get caught up in the emotions
Well it sure is heartening to see BTPs rallying to 30 day highs while the DAX is crashing. The Germans really are merciful martyrs.
Very true - for what it's worth I believe that the Bernanke put is still in place and that even though it's misguided, he will at the very least hint at additional stimulus later day. Then again - like you said - I shouldn't trust my own opinion.
today i am not in trading mode as i ma drunk. however. indian index around 13-14k I' ll be all in long across the indexes.
This is a completely silly claim, Debaser, don't listen to those people... They didn't buy anywhere near those amounts. It's more like EUR 3 - 8bn, no more than that.
Whats the source of the rumor. Market action seems to back your hypothesis that someone big might be in stress or going down! Also implies we might be nearing another LTCM/Lehman - and this time we might not get the luxury of a weekend to sort out things......now thats scary part of this panic. But in light of today's FOMC, I am going long usdchf at least till the time I am proven wrong.