QE3 stirrings ... from Hilsenrath. Good for 15 S&P points in about 45 minutes. http://online.wsj.com/video/view-in...omy/4F6EC770-E73F-4F3D-BC8A-444D9D2E4663.html
thanks Ralph alternative link: http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2011...ls-signal-support-for-qe3-if-inflation-slows/ "Former Top Fed Officials Signal Support For QE3 If Inflation Slows"
Martinghoul I value your opinion (thanks for pointing out months ago that JPY might not tank for years), but I am wondering if your views on QE3 have changed in light of Hilsenrath's WSJ piece today? Also, given you agree that 'things are fluid and minds might change', what kind of unemployment rate (or other economic stat) and stockmarket level would you think that the chances of QE3 increase to 51% or higher?
Hi guys, I'm new here but have been following (and enjoying) the thread for quite a while. If I can intrude into the discussion, I don't think they would implement QE3 as a mere solution to unemployment...QE and QE2 did nothing in terms of this. In his testimony in front of the congress, Bernanke said clearly that a new QE would be considered in case deflation picks up. And stockmarket's behaviour is not directly part of Fed's mandate. Also in order to carry our another QE, I guess they would need quite some cash, which I am not sure they have at the moment.
I don't know, m22, to be honest... IMHO, Hilsenrath's story doesn't change much. Moreover, I don't think it's a matter of unemployment/stock mkt. The very first test is to determine whether the current situation is a "soft patch" and we're in for a bounce in Q3 or whether this is for real. So I am pretty sure the Fed will sit on its hands until things become clearer. Secondly, I do believe that there is a growing awareness at the Fed that QE2 didn't stimulate the right mix of nominal and real growth. I could be wrong, but I do think that the threshold for the Fed to engage in another QE is a lot higher and that they may try to come up with other solutions. Obviously, if there's a Eurocalypse and there's a liquidity situation, everything changes.
"Could There Really Be A Recession Risk In Germany?" http://fistfulofeuros.net/afoe/could-there-really-be-a-recession-risk-in-germany/ "Suddenly People Are Starting To Ask: How Screwed Is Germany?" http://www.businessinsider.com/german-recession-odds-2011-8 "It's all the more reason for Germany to keep bailing out its neighbors. A Eurozone without the PIIGS, or a a Germany on the Deutsche Mark would see a much stronger currency and much poorer neighbors, killing exports." I understand that logic. But I'm swayed by the other side of it, ie, if the German economy is also heading for a recession, then there may not be as much political room for German politicians to help out Spain and Italy. German citizens might rightly ask "If German unemployment rises, then why should the govt help out Spain and Italy when it should help out its domestic economy?"
No problem... FWIW, there's talk (based on some comments by Brian Sack) about the possibility of the Fed changing the maturity composition of its balance sheet (selling shorter-dated USTs to buy longer-dated ones). So the Fed might do a big flattener. This was from a recent WSJ article. Otherwise, they might lower the rate of IOER.