So it looks like Bitcoin is in a new firm bull market, I wont make the mistakes that I made the last time around. That is, waste too much time getting in and out of alt coins. My plan is to hold my position in BTC (plus GLXY and some coins I'm bagholding) UNTIL the sell signal appears. The sell signal will be MAINSTREAM talking about bitcoin. When BTC topped in 2017, SNL did a sketch on it, Kathy Perry was talking about her crypto nails and I was being approached in parties with people taking about crypto. That's what I will be looking for to sell it all out and raise fiat researves to rebuy during a crash. I might scale a bit out on the way up (I already did sell most of my GLXY as its up almost 5x from my entry) but I want to do the bulk of my selling when BTC talk reaches 'crazy' levels again. Its going to be fun watching this bubble run
The main indicators precisely were: https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/29/kat...t-apparently-gabbed-about-cryptocurrency.html November 29 2017 - BTC Price $11,000 SNL Bitcoin Sketch Dec 10 2017 - BTC Price $15,455 As BTC was in its final exponential phase (of that run) selling too early was costly so a trailing stop of some sort would probably worked out pretty nicely
The only thing I would add is that maybe don't get trigger happy with the sells. There is institutional participation in this rally, I suspect there will be much more.
https://www.coindesk.com/druckenmiller-invests-bitcoin One by one, they are falling. I think Dalio will need more time but he will get there
Gold investors with no bitcoin COULD be like Taxi drivers with medallions and no uber start-up shares. At the very least its a great hedge. Even if is not super likely that bitcoin will overcome gold, its not completely impossible either after all Software eats the world https://a16z.com/2011/08/20/why-software-is-eating-the-world/
Dalio showing his (current) ignornace with regards to bitcoin https://www.coindesk.com/bridgewate...nts-banning-bitcoin-should-it-become-material " In an interview with Yahoo Finance, Dalio said he expects more digitized versions of government-issued currencies in the future than bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies for three reasons: A lack of venues that will accept cryptocurrencies for purchase. "I today can't take my bitcoin yet and buy things easily with it." Bitcoin and other cryptos are too volatile to be considered an effective store of wealth. That volatility also hurts bitcoin's use transactionally because vendors won't know how much they're getting, Dalio said. If bitcoin or other cryptos become "material," Dalio predicted governments will "outlaw" it. "They'll use whatever teeth they have to enforce that."" 1 - Bitcoin as a currency is irrelevant. No one uses gold bars or coins to buy anything, yet it is worth $9T globally 2 - They are volatile because they are an infant innovation. Much like Facebook or Uber shares early-on. By the time BTC is no longer volatile and Dalio likes it as a store of value, there wont be any significant (exponential) profits to be made by astute observants. 3 - Bitcoin is a peer to peer system like bittorrent. It cannot be stopped by laws. There is no server to show-up one day and deliver a warrant. Governments couldn't even stop Wikileaks for Christ sake! And Wikileaks is a much more vulnerable system, from the book of one of the cofounders, their system is nothing more than a number of servers distributed in countries that protect freedom of press. The bitcoin system can be mined in any country in the world by anyone with processing power. While a worlwide ban would certaintly hit its hashrate, I bet there would be plenty of people willing to take risks to keep it going. Specially given that they would receive financial incentives to do so (mining rewards). People did that with Bittorrent even WITHOUT the financial reward. Dalio's understanding of bitcoin is just embarrasing
BTC can certainly be stopped by laws. If the USA and EU shut down the exchanges, banned futures and GBTC etc and declared that any bank transacting with crypto exchanges would be punished or closed, the market would collapse. I imagine this hasn't been done because the system actually offers much greater visibility into illicit money flows.
The price would collapse (for a while) but that wouldn't STOP bitcoin, it would continue to be mined, transacted and function. Which is my point