I'm seeing right now a presentation in Brazil talking about US high yield where they used some formulas based off historical regressions to extract the implied US default rate based off current junk bond market pricing. And its around 5-7% implied. The realized is already at 5% and in 2009 it reached 13%. And I'm sure this ridiculous overvaluation is also effecting the price of the equity of many companies (since they are competing assets) The Fed has been successful at detaching the market from fundamentals
I would just like to remind you that a similar thesis is the reason why Glassman and Hassett thought the Dow would go to 36,000
https://markets.businessinsider.com...-buffett-berkshire-hathaway-2020-6-1029349522 This is an interesting investment opportunity to be analyzed in the future. Whether Chamath is doing that because he wants others to have an opportunity to invest in the earlier stage tech world or whether he wants liquidity to cash out remains to be seen. I suspect its the later as he seems to be a typical Silicon Valley asshole but I'm open to be shown wrong and invest
It's just empire-building megalomania. My own thinking is that Buffett's story was a product of his time. Trying to imitate him or his investment method and expecting similar results in the 21st century is a sign of an egomaniac more than anything else - and therefore a signal to run away as fast as you can!
Interesting trade idea " So what is the "unbound by other people's money" Hendry doing with his money? "I am long gold, I'd be long equities, and I would be long FX volatility... the Saudi peg's not gonna last, Hong Kong's peg's not gonna last...because the world is gonna change." " https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/h...ar-devaluation-wants-joe-rogan-radicalize-fed Long FX vol is something to be explored
The challenge is access to instruments to trade that. I do not see HKD or Saudi Rial options on IB. Even USDCAD options (through CAD futures) dont go out that far. So maybe way OTM gold calls is all that is left
"Protesters outside Amazon's Jeff Bezos’ home set up guillotine" https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/amazon-driver-abandons-delivery-van-viral-tweet It looks to me that the US is on the verge of a social revolution in terms of wealth distribution, all it needs is a catalyst. In terms of race issues it was George Floyd, in terms of wealth I dont know what will be but it seems likely to happen within the next 12-24 months
The activists at the top of the food chain get support and funding from wealthy benefactors and their foundations. Check out the "Thousand Currents" NGO. Seemingly everything is being canceled or destroyed, yet we don't hear one word about taxes on the rich, health care etc etc. At the moment it seems the plutocrats have things well contained. One might even say it's all working very well as a distraction...