Global Macro Trading Journal

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Daal, Feb 25, 2011.

  1. Daal

    Daal

    I believe quantifying and creating rules is a good idea, however, I would still leave room for discretion. To me, its like chess, the best players these days are the computers, but if you combine a computer with the best human player, that's actually a more powerful combination because the human knows where the computer is weak at (long-term strategic moves) and the computer fixes the human issues (short-term tactical mistakes). If I was doing macro full time I would try to move towards something like that, combining great mechanical rules with my discretion, there are a number of papers on macro 'warning signs' for economic disruptions/FX moves, etc, maybe that's a good place to start

    I would agree with this. I believe risk has to considered individually. For a well paid doctor, it makes sense to run more risk in a portfolio because his income is so stable. For a singer, that is one tweet away from ruinning his career, its a different story. Also, one of my ideas in personal finance is that the first property that someone buys is virtually risk-free even though it might be almost 100% of that person's worth being invested in a risk asset. Its risk-free because people need a roof to live on and it generates 'income' in the form of rent saving (and is tax free). Effectively its an REIT with 100% occupancy. So if that person's portfolio consists in 100% of real estate but that real estate is their first property, I wouldn't think that's a mistake but rather a great idea.
    Its like we as humans have permission to do risky things in certain situations because of our circumstances. There are many situations like that, probably many that I havent even thought off but its fun to them because it enables us to earn premia while taking little to no risk
     
    #8071     Mar 25, 2019
  2. m22au

    m22au

  3. Daal

    Daal

    The SEC seems to have started a more open regulatory stance to ICOs and this has been leading to a pop in BTC. Perhaps this more open approach will lead to the ETF approval in the next 12 months
     
    #8073     Apr 3, 2019
    CH1973 likes this.
  4. Daal

    Daal

    The UBER IPO is a downround vs the last VC round. Its even worse when you consider that the term 'downround' is usually used when talking about private rounds, when the IPO itself is a downround its that much worse. Even the 'liquidity premium' wasn't enough to get the price above the previous round. Peter Thiel has talked about in the past how downrounds are usually bad bets. Given that the stock is trading even bellow its downrounded price, it looks like an easy pass
     
    #8074     May 10, 2019
    zdreg likes this.
  5. Daal

    Daal

  6. Daal

    Daal

    BTC continues to push strongly, paying dividends to all of those that bought on the way down when it was unpopular like I did. Idiots like Hempton now have an egg on their face (although I'm sure he has plenty of excuses). Galaxy digital is also doing well. I will sell when Kathy Perry talks about it, when SNL is doing skits about it, CNBC is talking about it all day long or something along those lines
     
    #8076     Jun 26, 2019
  7. Daal

    Daal

    This FB Libra thing could be huge. There will be 2 billion people exposed and familiarized with the world of crypto. I bet there will be Libra/BTC pairs in all major crypto brokers. Some of these 2 billion people will think 'I can own libra and retain my value or own BTC and get rich, bitcoin goes up everyday right? Let me buy some'. This could become one of the biggest bubbles ever
     
    #8077     Jun 26, 2019
  8. Yes, not multiple global regulators immediately shot the entire project down. I can dig out the link to the article in the FT that talked at length about it just days ago.

     
    #8078     Jun 27, 2019
  9. Daal

    Daal

    They will regulate but not stop it. Why would they? All facebook wants is to create a glorified ETF of currencies and short-term bonds in which the shares can be transfered between people. Its not that much different from what paypal does. As a long as they do KYC (and Facebook has a lot more data on people than paypal EVER will) there little or no reason why this wont be allowed
     
    #8079     Jun 27, 2019
  10. Total nonsense, first of all, none of the FB crypto in any way relates to Bitcoin, just because an exchange makes a market does not mean anything. I can make you a market for Bitcoin-denominated in Bangladeshi chicken feed. the FB crypto has zero bearing on the future value or popularity of Bitcoin. Next, you are conveniently omitting the fact that the reserve fund does not exist in real life. It is a virtual basket to which the value of this crypto will be referenced. Next, regulators do not only concern themselves with the creation of money/value but also with the safety of where funds originate from and where they go. I have never had a FB account ever. FB knows shit about me. Nothing whatsoever. I can open a FB account and transfer funds to someone else in the Middle East who equally does not have any history with FB and can happily send money back and forth. That is exactly the thing regulators are preventing. You also forget privacy concerns a huge issue that is a big part of this entire crypto idea by FB.

    Wanna make a bet that this crypto is not gonna launch next year?

    Your ETF example is ridiculous. An ETF is fully backed by real assets that have to be held via regulatory requirement.

     
    #8080     Jun 27, 2019