https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018...g-recession-we-dont-have-any-stabilizers-left I agree, the next recession could be the US "UK 70's" moment. Stocks probably drop 50%+ and the dollar implodes as well (so the total loss to a non-US citizen might be as much as 70%+). I hope I'm able to dodge that bullet and even profit from it
But its a little tricky, the S&P500 forward PE is 16-17, there is a great story around earnings and the economy (and NK and in the future, I believe, in trade as well as the deals start to happen). If someone just bails out of the market now, they might miss out a big rally before that drop. So one has to be aware of how that game ends but still be cautious about not becoming a Peter Schiff. There will be a time to be a bear, I'm just not sure it is now
El-Erian is a buyer of BTC at $5K https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/29/el-...-for-all-.html?__source=twitter|international I like his thinking but his trading/investing on this I dont agree. If he is wrong on waiting, it can run several times the extra $900 he is trying to save (BTC is at $5900 right now on binance). Its a assymetry running against the guy waiting. There is a reason why there is that saying 'dont be a dick for a tick', its a similar issue
I think some of this arises from seeing BTC as an 'invesment'. In investments, that kind of price patience makes sense (to a greater degree). I like to look at BTC more like as an perpetual (or really long-term) call option on speculation. The more uncertainty, the greater the value of that option. Liking a call option but being so picky about its price, its a bit like shorting that call. At least in terms of missing potential profits
And thats the thing, these are such new assets. There is so little data and stabilished history on them (and what we have is so surprising to everyone involved) that is VERY hard to be precise and KNOW things. As a result, anyone with common sense has to say 'shit, I just dont know'. That is, admit that there is a lot of uncertainty. And the more uncertainty the more one should lean towards being long because BTC is a like call and uncertainty tends to be good to options. If this was SPY then one could be more of a 'dick for a tick' because there is more data, there is more predictability, history, etc. You could rely more on technicals, levels, etc but on BTC? I think that is just dellusional
Here is Trump being pranked by a comedy show He got into the call thinking he was talking to Democrat Bob Menendez. What is interesting to me is how nice and normal Trump sounds. Its the kinda of call you would expect from Obama, very diplomatic and polite. A lot of what Trump does (in terms of being a douche/asshole) is just an act so he can get leverage in a negotiation. And as North Korea shows, it can work One of the first quotable quotes from his book "sometimes it pays to be a little wild"
Amen. Only took me a 10+ years to figure that one out. But then again Daal, maybe we are biased due to our journey. 10 years ago, I would never have given up the grind because I would not be the same financial position I am now.
Absolutely. I guess when you dont have that much financial abundance it makes more sense to be 'unbalanced' for a while. But once one reaches it, its crazy to continue. The average person is in such a difficult position because they need 30-40 years to get there while a good trader just 5-10 years (I know some more talented traders who got there even faster). But I also see people who get rich through a grind but they never stop. Wall street investment bankers, highly paid executives, top day traders a lot of these people become slaves to money. Maybe certain things happened in their childhoods or yonger days that made them value money more than other things (in my case it was influence from my father was well as being a child in a family of 7 children, so there wasnt a lot of money to spare). The ideal situation is to let that value by higher up on the hiearchy when you dont have it, but after you get it the optimal play is to change your values and send money down line (perhaps upping family/friendships/entertraiment). The older I get the more I seem to realize that the 'best people' in any given field are usually pretty horrible models on how to live. I'm re-reading a great book right now (Barking up the Wrong Tree, which I highly recommend) and it talks about life satisfaction, happiness, work and other things, based on empirical studies and stuff. Its really amazing how miserable and bad Ted Williams life was (which the books talks about) even though he might be the greatest hitter ever. The sacrifices one has to make in order to reach to the very top (such a valuing work in a obsessive way) makes it extremely hard to be a happy person (or good friend, good husband)etc. In my mind, a better goal is to be on the top 5-10% of a field. That way you get a challenge/goal without running your life. And a top 10% guy should have a lot more life balance even though he will have to accept there will be people that will be a lot better than him and there will be a lot of money left on the table, but hey, who cares about being the richest man in the graveyard? One of the greatest problems with globalization is that it is making competition is tough that everywhere companies are slaving their employees because they feel that if they dont, they will go out of business (and they are probably right). The anti-globalization trend that exists these days is good in that respect, it might be unoptimal economically but I believe will be good for the people
One of my demons is my competitive nature (which steams back from having a lot of games being played with my siblings and wanting to win). I tend to be obssed with doing things perfectly and wanting to be the best. I have improved a ton, im probably less competitive now than in my entire life but its a never ending battle because I do enjoy challenge and I absolutely adore stories of struggle and survival. So I have some internal emotional needs that are met when I try to be the best at something but at the same time, its destructive to many other needs (like life-work balance, being too abrasive with other people, its a unattainable goal etc). But good thing is, I'm aware of how fucked up this all are, so I can fix it overtime. But I see a lot of competitive people that take pride on it, they are on the dark side and dont seem to be aware of it