Well, its not going to help having those futures around, that's for sure. A lot of people will then launch ETFs based on the futures, kinda like they do with the agricultural and commodity ETF based on futures. There will be options as well. Furthermore, I trade GBTC daily and there are a lot of people throwing around 100-300 share sizes, for those people, it simply will make no sense not to play with the futures. They are big enough of a players to know how to get involved with futures I think I got enough ways to win -BTC crashes back to $5k or bellow, premium will vanish as it will make no sense to pay a premium to a collapsing asset with a 2% annual charge. There are plenty of funds in the US that trade at a discount to the underlying assets -The futures/options/etfs bring down the premium even though BTC doesnt crash If I hold this for a few weeks and it doesnt come back down, then I will cover and move on But my point is that this trade is negatively correlated with BTC sentiment and it probably has positive expectation, at the right size this a good hedge to have on for those long BTC and other coins
I setup my stop at ~$9000 on BTC I also learned how to claim my Bitcoin gold today and will be selling that on HitBTC for BTC or LTC and then cashing that in on Kraken
I don't see any reason from 1000 to 10k. Better just follow the trend. No reason doesn't mean it would stop raising.
Yes you are right - the futures will probably help to reduce the premium a little bit, however, it I'm guessing that it will still exist and be significant (more than 20%). Only when a Bitcoin ETF starts trading will the premium reduce to single digit % amount. .
Here is the thing, "rebalancing" works, in theory and in practice. When you have 5% in something and it doubles, now you got 10%, it makes sense to sell that extra 5% and go back to the original 5% (if it was appropriate at 5% in the past why not now). I'm going a step further and saying that crash risks have never been higher as the asset is much higher (up 10x in the year), extremely popular (wide coverage everywhere, even by mainstream people) and fundamentals have not improved much(no major retailer has accepted it, its still very difficult to use bitcoin). So if risks are higher, then it makes sense to rebalance to a lower allocation than the initial one. if it was 5%, 2% might make more sense, etc What does NOT make sense to get more confident as prices go higher and crash risks increase, to allow these unproven assets become a huge % of a portfolio. The theme of "i will put a little bit into bit and maybe I will retire in 10 years" is what created this bubble in the first place. Until fundamentals improve it just doesn't make sense to remain heavily invested there with risks so high.
Bitcoin this year vs bubbles. Today's front page of the WSJ My thesis is that bitcoin is a 'bubble on fast forward', if I'm right it can die out a lot faster than people think I got chopped a little today as my stop got hit at 9000 but the price held a few times, a double bottom, I was forced to pay a higher price later to rebuy. But my exposure is the lowest it has been since I invested on this a few months ago and I will not hold if it loses that 9000 level. I want to capture the potential upside without risking bagholding a 90% drop like all the idiots are doing
I see that DASH has been doing well relatively to other cryptos in the last few days. Currently at $767, which is roughly where it was when Bitcoin was over $11,000. I know you said that you care little about fundamentals - but do you know why it is so strong compared to other currencies?
From what I have read its because its more anonymous than bitcoin so some people are thinking this will do well because of the demand from criminals, tax evaders and the like. But the same thing could have been said about XMR and ZEC and their rallies have been more contained in recent days, so who knows As far as bitcoin goes, a few years back I thought this might have been a great buy because of criminal demand, but I was completely wrong. Bitcoin is so public it offers very little value for people that want to do dirty stuff. Just check out the site https://www.walletexplorer.com/ And put in an address that you have used, you will see all the transactions that were ever done in the history of that address. And the history of the addesses that were sent from the original address. This whole bitcoin thing is a prosecutor's dream, all they need is to prove that someone own an address, after that they have ALL that persons 'bank' records publicly avaliable on the blockchain. And to prove someone owns an address all they need is pressure the exchanges or if they are not balking, a court order for them to turn over records. That's not that hard to do. Bitcoin is only anonymous if you store bitcoins in a private wallet forever and never use it, kinda like Satoshi is doing with his 1M BTC. The minute he uses it in a retailer or cashouts out in an exchange, the entire world will know who he is. So he is a billionarie but cant spend a dime without revealing himself