Global Macro Trading Journal

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Daal, Feb 25, 2011.

  1. There are a few scenarios. A couple are described by here by Carney and Morici. Yes, there are some legal issues, but nothing appears set in stone, and Geithner has made his career twisting laws so that the Fed and the Treasury could do what they need to do to keep the game going.

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/43899646

    Now Carney writes for entertainment purposes, but I've seen the exact same scenario laid out in more academic fashion elsewhere. This was just the first link I happened on.

    The bottom line is this deadline is a made-up crisis. Why the Bammer and Geithner have played this game of chicken is a political matter I can't get my head around. Maybe some of his critics are right and BO is another Herbert Hoover.

    In the meantime, we remain in one of the most balls to the wall bull markets ever. Why are people's panties in such a bunch? A downgrade by the moronic ratings agencies would be meaningless other than providing a nice buying opportunity. If anything is going to derail it, it's going to be a crack-up of the insanity in China or Italy/Spain falling apart, not what whether there is some stupid, kick-the-can meaningless fucking deal between the Bammer and the Boner this month (remember Gramm-Rudman? how'd that one work out!!!)
     
    #751     Jul 26, 2011
  2. Hey haven't you read Black Swan? :p
     
    #752     Jul 27, 2011
  3. Daal

    Daal

    I find it quite unlikely the Fed would agree with this, handling the control of the money supply to the UST at a time where M2 is soaring. This type of move could get iexpectations to unanchor big time

    If they were to do this, essentially congress wouldn't have a strong reason to approve a debt ceiling hike and the amount of new money created by the UST would be quite large overtime
     
    #753     Jul 27, 2011
  4. That's possible, but the Fed - especially under Bernanke - gave up its independence long ago. Can't put that genie back in the bottle.

    Time for the Fed, Geithner, and the Bammer to lie in the beds that they've made.
     
    #754     Jul 27, 2011
  5. Bernanke has actually explicitly stated that he's not going to do anything to assist in the resolution of this, hasn't he?
     
    #755     Jul 27, 2011
  6. Look at Euro CHF...:p

    Also, it offers a nice view on the claim that weak currencies are good for an economy.

    Let's see where the Swiss are 5 years from now.
     
    #756     Jul 28, 2011
  7. Swiss banks' earnings reports were horrid. They're laying off workers. Swiss about to say "uncle" and soon. (Aussies too).
     
    #757     Jul 28, 2011
  8. I shirley hope so, but, so far, no luv... Besides, with BTPS blowing none of this stuff matters.
     
    #758     Jul 28, 2011
  9. Horrid grammar.
     
    #759     Jul 28, 2011
  10. Indeed... For you readin' pleasure, naturally.
     
    #760     Jul 28, 2011