Global Macro Trading Journal

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Daal, Feb 25, 2011.

  1. Money under the mattress?
     
    #741     Jul 26, 2011
  2. Butterball

    Butterball

    You should start making Zero Hero your start page like Ralphie did. No more guessing the reason why markets moved one way or another!
     
    #742     Jul 26, 2011
  3. m22au

    m22au

    Could it be that the USD is weak because of both the debt ceiling shenanigans and also expectations of QE3?

    And maybe also wider (ongoing) diversification by central banks away from the USD and into a range of currencies, including, but not limited to gold, EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY, AUD, CAD.
     
    #744     Jul 26, 2011
  4. Daal

    Daal

    I read somewhere that the gov could tap the exchange stabilization fund to prevent a default, its true. To me there is little doubt that the Aug 2 deadline was created just to lead congress to a sense of urgency. The actual date the US starts defaulting on obligations is probably quite a bit in the future, and to default on interest or debt payments is probably even more in the future still
     
    #745     Jul 26, 2011
  5. This is a reasonably detailed look at it and it says "bipartisan" on the cover :).
    http://www.bipartisanpolicy.org/sites/default/files/Debt Ceiling Analysis FINAL.pdf
     
    #746     Jul 26, 2011
  6. Well, dollar-based assets are doing just fine. Treasuries up again today, stock market is at multi-year highs. Commodities are all rocking. If it wasn't for the debt ceiling nonsense in the headlines, one would think the Fed just announced more easing. Really, you should know better.

    I would argue the action in the dollar has approximately zero to do with this debt ceiling posturing. I would further argue that Treasury running out of cash could be strongly dollar positive.

    In any case the U.S. has weeks, if not months, or even a year before Treasury runs out of money. There are several options. This is a completely made up issue.
     
    #747     Jul 26, 2011
  7. I am going to have to disagree with some, if not all, of what you say.
     
    #748     Jul 26, 2011
  8. Perfect! You two can make a trade with each other :cool:
     
    #749     Jul 26, 2011
  9. Is this because our funding costs would go up in the form of higher interest rates, thus attracting inflows? If so, I also disagree on the basis that non-paying paper makes poor collateral, which is the biggest thing going for the dollar because payments are taken for granted.

    Also, you perceive the treasury deadline to be much further in the future than the mainstream view. What will be cannibalized to extend it out?
     
    #750     Jul 26, 2011