The brazilian constitution is vague enough on what constitutes an impeachable offense, it mentions something that can be translated into "Administrative Crimes" (which can also include regular crimes). The US is the same thing, what is a high crime or misdemeanour? Its vague enough that it can be anything Congress thinks it is. Apparently perjury is not a high crime (accoding to the US senate) even though its a regular crime. The problem is then compounded by the fact that the US uses Common Law. In Brazil with the Civil Law, at least there is an effort to respect what the legislation says, that gets ignored all the time but at least, in theory, they want to stick by it. With Common Law, they can create new prescedent and new law by just doing it. As a result, with a vague term such as 'high crime or misdemeanour' Congress can just then define what that is by voting and deciding on it. As a result, the law, interpretations, what this or that law expert says is irrelevant. What will determine things is how much support Trump has and given that Republicans tend to be more of assholes than Democrats to public opinion, I seriously doubt they would impeach their own president almost regardless of the facts
EWZ down 15% premarket. Quite a big move for a country-specific ETF! http://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-corruption-idUSKCN18D2XY https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...s-implicate-president-michel-temer-in-bribery .
Although its a little early to say but I don't think this is such a big deal. The president is likely to resign before June 6 when the electoral justice was set to try his election. He is likely to lose there and he knows it, so he will resign. This will lead to a new president to be elected by Congress, which is likely to be from the center-right. Heck, even the left was talking about Pension reform a couple years ago. The reforms will continue to be pushed. This will be similar to what happens in the Parlamentary system where new elections are called when political capital is gone, so it will help new alliances to be build and it will help the reforms, long-term So, having taken a precaution of selling 20-25% recently, I don't plan to sell anything into this gap. I will just wait and watch, mostly likely this is an overreaction. I will monitor the political situation very carefully but as of right now, I don't see this as being all that bad.
OK I'm going to be a "catch a falling knife" crazy person and buy some EWZ down 17%. The other side to the trade is momentum-based selling, particularly if there are large EWZ redemptions. .
Here is an article of the lefist finance minister talking about the need of pension reform over a year ago, right before important votes on impeachment https://oglobo.globo.com/economia/barbosa-reforma-da-previdencia-esta-na-agenda-no-governo-18974606 So I don't think this changes much, that reform is accepted by anyone that knows arithmetic. Its going to be delayed for a few months but a new government will reset their political capital. I'm even considering adding back my $37 sells but its tough because I'm going to be already overriding my moving average stop. To override the stop and adding to the position seems a little reckless, specially without waiting for the first day closing price (which is what really matters, not the pre-market illiquid trading)
I'm comfortable with my exposure there. To me this is similar to the Trump sell-off, back then EWZ went from $38 to $31 in a few days, then grinded back to $40. If there was some significant chance of a lefist government taking over, I would be scared shitless and would sell it all almost regardless of the price. The last lefist government even tried to contact the military last year before the impeachment, according to some generals. They are desperate and if they gain power they would turn this into venezuela. but its really hard for them to go anywhere in the Congress election vote or in a general election. They burned all their political capital by leading the country to a giant recession, Lula is a criminal defendand in 5 cases, the Supreme court has ruled that criminal defendands can't be in the presidential line (so house, senate presidents, etc) which leads one to think they will not allow him to run. Most likely a centrist or right winger gets elected, keeps the current finance minister and by being fresh and having cabinet positions to give to congress, actually builds some support for the reforms. So to me, this is largely an overreaction
Daal - just to check - Wikipedia says that in the upcoming election https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brazilian_general_election,_2018#Opinion_polls Lula da Silva https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luiz_Inácio_Lula_da_Silva of the (left wing) Workers' Party https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Workers'_Party_(Brazil) is set to win the most votes (about 30%) of any party. Is this the scenario you are worried about? .
No, in case Temer resigns there wont be a popular election, it will be a Congress election. they will choose the next leader. This congress voted to impeach the last Workers Party president, it would make little sense to elect Lula. If he doesn't resign but gets removed by the electoral justice, in theory could be a general election but -He is a 5 time criminal defend that is set to have the outcome of the first trial to be determined by June end -The Supreme court has already said criminal defendends are not fit to be in the presidential line, never mind actually being president failing all that I still think he would lose, Joao Doria from the right would beat him quite easily as he did with the incunbent works party candidate in the Sao Paulo Mayor race