Global Macro Trading Journal

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Daal, Feb 25, 2011.

  1. Daal

    Daal

    upload_2016-12-6_19-26-18.png

    upload_2016-12-6_19-26-49.png
     
    #6411     Dec 6, 2016
  2. Daal

    Daal

    I believed the hype in the months leading to the election, I thought Trump was crazy and his policies would create chaos. But now that I got to know his people and tactics more closely, I think he is going to do just fine. It will be bumpy but he is likely to get good things done
     
    #6412     Dec 6, 2016
  3. Daal

    Daal

    I bring this up because that's sort of what is going on right now in Brazil. Back during the Senate impeachment vote they innovated, they divided the vote into 2, one for the removal of the President from office and another from stripping of political rights (being unelectable for 8 years). Rouseff lost the first vote but no 2/3 majority formed in the second one, so she kept (for now) her political rights. There was no constitutional basis for such decision, the words make it very clear that the sentence goes together. People appealed to the Supreme Court but the Court didnt want to intervene so the innovation "became" law
    So apparently, there is no limit to how much a Senate can create law. Whatever they decide goes. I would assume most judiciaries would be afraid of voiding a decision by the legislative, specially if there is a qualified majority (3/5 or more), it could start a war between them and usually Congress along with the Executive are the ones who control the real guns (the army) as opposed to just cops
     
    #6413     Dec 6, 2016
  4. Daal

    Daal

    This kinda of kind should happen more in a Banana republic like Brazil but still, if the US Senate decided to dare the Judiciary with a qualified majority, wouldnt that create new law which supercedes whatever brought a court order in the first place?
     
    #6414     Dec 6, 2016
  5. Amalgam

    Amalgam

    US President is responsible for enforcement of law so if the President followed the courts orders Senate is powerless.
     
    #6415     Dec 6, 2016
  6. Ya think???

    http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/12/nyregion/donald-trump-atlantic-city.html?_r=0
     
    #6416     Dec 6, 2016
  7. Daal

    Daal

    how so? isnt Congress veto proof if they build a substantial majority?
     
    #6417     Dec 6, 2016
  8. Daal

    Daal

    Thing is, we havent heard from him about what was this Casino strategy all about. I recall an interviewer asking him about a bankruptcy in one of his companies and his answer was 'I own over 50 companies, of course some of them are going to fail'. Given overall business fail rates of over 90% within 5 years, indeed this is no surprise

    It appears to me that his strategy of owning casinos was due to the tax code, perhaps he saw that Atlantic City casinos provided substantial tax benefits to the owners. So he went in there in a big way. The tax benefits from Atlantic City decreased his tax burden from NY real estate, so overall it was profitable for him, especially if he was in the process of selling some property with substantial capital gains. Again, we cant know any of this because we only get to read the side of a journalist in these bash pieces

    None of this means that Atlantic City would have done great without Trump being there, those investors would have probably lost a lot of money anyway, in other Casino projects run by someone else. He says he hires the best people to run his companies, I got no reason to not believe him. He would have done even better had the Casinos not failed but they did, yet, because of the tax code and the way he structured his deals, his downside was limited
     
    #6418     Dec 6, 2016
  9. Daal

    Daal

    Somehow Brazil's Senate president is still in power and now the talk is that they got the Supreme Court to adopt another innovation. Rumor is that they will vote not whether or not he can remain in his seat but that along with another option, which is he is allowed to be the Senate President but cannot be President of the country when the seat is vacated due to death, impeachment, travel, etc
    This guy is the Keyser Soze of politics
     
    #6419     Dec 7, 2016
  10. Daal

    Daal

    Damn, what a huge all-time high breakout on SPX today
     
    #6420     Dec 7, 2016