Global Macro Trading Journal

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Daal, Feb 25, 2011.

  1. Daal

    Daal

    I'm now long SPY at $221.35 avg. Might add a lilttle more if it drops. Stop at $218 or a close bellow $220. Thats the sign the market has rejected the all-time highs, I think.
    So, risking $2 bucks, trying to make, maybe $8 or $10
     
    #6331     Nov 30, 2016
  2. Daal

    Daal

    8% position so far, but I might increase it to 12%-15%
     
    #6332     Nov 30, 2016
  3. Daal

    Daal

    Market closed kinda weak, maybe that $220 level is too close. Will try to give some room, thats why I hate to chase something higher and I keep waiting for a dip to get in. It makes all the decisions a lot easier because you tend to get tested less.
    But at the same time, waiting for a dip can make you just watch something rip without you. It happened today on FNMA, I never added as a daytrade or swing trade, just kept my long-term postions. Well, except at the close, there I added but had I bit the bullet and done it sooner, I would have a much better entry
     
    #6333     Nov 30, 2016
  4. Daal

    Daal

    https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/beigebook/beige-book-faqs.htm#4

    New Beige book now has a category for Prices and Wages for all Districts
    "In addition, the District reports will have greater overlap in the specific information provided about overall economic activity, employment and wages, and prices; this will allow for easier comparisons across regions."

    Previously, I think, it would be on a report by report basis which Districts would report that information.

    So, they want to inform the market about inflation and wage trends more accuraretly. That sounds hawkish
     
    #6334     Nov 30, 2016
  5. Daal

    Daal

    The statements from the new UST sec this morning are very strong

    [​IMG]

    Effectively he is saying the GSEs will NOT be wound down (which some in Congress want), that they will be safe and wont need another bailout (that is, they will be allowed to build up capital) and the government will not own/control them.

    I'm not lawyer but the only way that this can happen without the creation of a new class of common stock (not possible outside bk as far as I know) is for the government to execise their warrants, void the net worth sweep and sell their stake into the market. They cant exercise the warrants and say 'here, these shares are good but the old ones are worthless', this would just open a whole new set of lawsuits. In fact, I dont think they would be even allowed do to that by Delaware law. Its the same class of stock, only way it has any value is if sweep is void. And his statements are consistent with a plan to do that
     
    #6335     Nov 30, 2016
  6. Daal

    Daal

    Essentially, the new UST secretary has adopted the basis of the Ackman plan for the GSEs
     
    #6336     Nov 30, 2016
  7. Daal

    Daal

    upload_2016-11-30_21-15-43.png

    The Ackman GSE plan
     
    #6337     Nov 30, 2016
  8. Daal

    Daal

    This market has been straight down since I bought. I'm exiting SPY here on the loss of the low of the day. Tiny loss. Might reenter in the future on better price action
     
    #6338     Dec 1, 2016
  9. Daal

    Daal

    Potential trade: play the bounce on that TLT. Its really starting to get out of hand. I will keep in eye during that day. Would be great to have a news catalyst of some kind
     
    #6339     Dec 1, 2016
  10. Daal

    Daal

    I probably should have used BRKB instead of SPY. Since Trump, the market has been screaming that this thing will benefit big time. Today, its up another 2 bucks, with SPY down
     
    #6340     Dec 1, 2016