Global Macro Trading Journal

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Daal, Feb 25, 2011.

  1. Daal

    Daal

    Obama pulled shit like haircutting GM secured bondholders, and the GSE networth sweep. Now guys with a different take on what the rule of law is, are going to take over the executive branch
     
    #6321     Nov 30, 2016
  2. Daal

    Daal

    I believe that by and large there are going to be 2 kinds of people dealing with the Trump corporate bonanza fest. The ones that will complain and cry about the 1%, about how it is all unfair as they watch wealth being created all around them and the ones who will profit from this and will join that 1%
     
    #6322     Nov 30, 2016
  3. Daal

    Daal

    I bought some SPY today, and I'm looking to buy more on dips. Its based on the idea of 2300+ SPX. Stop around 2180-2160 on the SPX
     
    #6323     Nov 30, 2016
  4. Daal

    Daal

    This market has solidly held its all-time high levels. The market is speaking and I'm looking to join the trend
     
    #6324     Nov 30, 2016
  5. Daal

    Daal

    "Trump’s 2 big picks for his economic team both say Janet Yellen has done a ‘good job'" - business insider
     
    #6325     Nov 30, 2016
  6. m22au

    m22au

    $20 per share seems high, given that the govt has warrants to buy 79.9% of the companies. But you probably know more about the situation than me!

    .
     
    #6326     Nov 30, 2016
  7. Daal

    Daal

    Keep in mind that the stock used to trade at $60-$70, and they are much bigger players in the mortgage market now. Even with gov exercising and selling their shares, 20% of this company is worth a lot
     
    #6327     Nov 30, 2016
  8. Daal

    Daal

    Here are some of the upside case for the stock
    upload_2016-11-30_14-1-28.png

    Goverment stands to make HUGE money by privatizing. Will help fund Trump's bonanza. Much better than to keep collecting $10-$20b per year from networth sweep, that wont help much with the deficit or for persuading Paul Ryan to do the fiscal fest, a big pile of cash will. Gov will prefer to get all that cash upfront by selling a valuable stake than to collect income. ESPECIALLY given that Trump has to win reelection in a few years
     
    #6328     Nov 30, 2016
  9. m22au

    m22au

    Thanks Daal, I started a FNMA / FMCC thread and I'll add a link to your post in that thread.
     
    #6329     Nov 30, 2016
  10. Daal

    Daal

    If it turns out that Ackman is right about FNMA and it goes to $10+, that should lead to a flow into the PSH stock and the discount to NAV will narrow. Thats why its so attractive to buy it at 15-20% discounts, its almost sure that he will run hot again in the future. At the point the discount comes in and you make an extra profit

    Furthermore he is known for unlocking value out of companies, if the discount persists, at some point he will go active in his own company and find a way to narrow that gap. Its certaintly a bad bet to think he will fail to do what he gets companies to do it all the time
     
    #6330     Nov 30, 2016