Global Macro Trading Journal

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Daal, Feb 25, 2011.

  1. Daal

    Daal

    If Trump backs down on trade, which he is likely to do, then the market will focus on the fact that with Reps in congress, its the first time in a long-time, corporate tax reform can pass. That is VERY positive for stuff like buybacks. They will cut down that repatriation rate and things like that
     
    #6231     Nov 9, 2016
  2. Daal

    Daal

    "On rare occasions, a President’s nuclear orders have been too unsettling for his staff to accept. In October, 1969, Richard Nixon told Secretary of Defense Melvin R. Laird to put nuclear forces on high alert. According to Sagan, the Stanford nuclear-arms specialist, Nixon hoped that the Soviets would suspect that he was willing to attack North Vietnam. Laird was appalled, and he tried an excuse: the alert would conflict with a scheduled military exercise. Sagan recalls, “He understood that Richard Nixon believed in the so-called ‘madman theory’ ”—deterring aggression by encouraging America’s rivals to suspect that Nixon was irrational. “

    But Mel Laird believed that the madman theory was pretty crazy, and that threatening to use nuclear weapons over something like Vietnam was not going to be effective, and might actually be dangerous. He tried to delay implementing the President’s orders, in the hopes that Nixon would calm down. Nixon did that a lot; he would make an angry comment, and if you ignored it he wouldn’t come back to it.” In this instance, Nixon did not forget, and Laird eventually complied. The operation, hastily organized, went poorly: eighteen B-52s, loaded with nuclear weapons, flew toward the Soviet Union. Some came dangerously close to other aircraft, an incident that an after-action report ruled “unsafe.”

    As I mentioned before, other presidents were pretty crazy themselves, they were just not as verbal in the campaign as Trump is. US is going to be fine
     
    #6232     Nov 9, 2016
  3. Daal

    Daal

  4. Daal

    Daal

    Could indexation/ETFs and low trading costs be making things worse for investors?
    upload_2016-11-9_8-47-3.png
    Its leading people to try to time the market, even more
     
    #6234     Nov 9, 2016
  5. Daal

    Daal

    #6235     Nov 9, 2016
  6. Daal

    Daal

    Only hedges that are working are cash, gold and of course, shorts. But shorts are tough so I'm glad I stuck with gold
     
    #6236     Nov 9, 2016
  7. Daal

    Daal

    Markets figured it all out very quickly, didnt even get a chance to buy much
     
    #6237     Nov 9, 2016
  8. Daal

    Daal

    Markets are going from "Trump is terrible" to "Trump is Romney reincarnated, good for business"
     
    #6238     Nov 9, 2016
  9. Daal

    Daal

    As traders and investors we are wrong constantly. As a result we learn we have to be nimble, humble and flexible. Most people can be wrong all their lifes without any check and balance. The beauty of this election is that the avg person, journalist, pundit got shoved in their face how easy is to be wrong and they cant run from that
     
    #6239     Nov 9, 2016
  10. Daal

    Daal

    You guys remember "darkhorse"? It was an ET dude who used to attack me and pretty much anyone who disagreed with his 'brillance' in this thread. He said Trump had a 2% chance to win and was going to be terrible (and he kept saying that for like ages). Trump won, he took down his twitter (@mercenaryjack) and is now hiding
    What I can promise is this, I have been wrong on VRX so far but I aint going to hide from anything that I post here. I will own up to the end
     
    #6240     Nov 9, 2016