"Most participants judged that IF incoming data were consistent with economic growth picking up in the second quarter, labor market conditions continuing to strengthen, and inflation making progress toward the Committee's 2 percent objective, then it LIKELY would be appropriate for the Committee to increase the target range for the federal funds rate in June." Fed puts two qualifiers on a June hike
What it feels like is that the Fed doesn't have a framework to raise rates. They are doing on the job training. The idea for the first hike was 'we do it now to avoid doing it even more later'. Then markets tanked, the framework became 'we can only raise rates when we see the white in the eyes of inflation and other data'. Then markets soared. Now it seems that they are doing a mix of these two. Its confusing for everyone, even them. I'm in small short ZQ and I don't have the conviction to go big on this
Out of fed futures trade. Jobs plus non-manuf ISM to me seals the deal for just 1 hike this year. At best
Incredible resilience in US equity indices. The asset premium compression induced by CBs just gained a new leg. I'm not sure how to respond to that other than to add some hedges. Currently I got a small short on SPY, long durations in UST bonds (with a good chunk in the 30y) plus my gold position
Hopefully the SPX tanks 5-10% and I can cover shorts, sell bonds and buy a lot of BRKB. I will not let it escape from me like the last time by tieing my hands by being short too many puts
There's been a lot written on this subject. The bookies and the polls are different sampling mechanisms. It's an open question on which one of the two gets it right this time.