Global Macro Trading Journal

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Daal, Feb 25, 2011.

  1. Daal

    Daal

    Tell that to the CHF/EUR pair
     
    #571     Jun 22, 2011
  2. #572     Jun 22, 2011
  3. Daal

    Daal

    Fed changes 'subdued inflation trends' to 'subdued outlook for inflation '
     
    #573     Jun 22, 2011
  4. #574     Jun 22, 2011
  5. Daal

    Daal

    I missed the press conference(A rare thing for me to miss a major Fed event but this seemed like a non-event and I had some stuff to do)

    Looks like I was correct to suspect that Bernanke misspoke when he referred to extended period as 'couple meetings'

    From GS:
    4. At the same time, his remarks hinted that the FOMC has in fact discussed easing options. Specifically, he said options could include: 1) securities purchases, which could be structured in various ways; 2) a cut in the interest rate on excess reserves; 3) guidance on how long the Fed will wait to sell securities; and 4) or “a fixed date to define extended period”. With regard to the extended period language, he revised his remarks from the last press conference, in which he said the extended period language meant “there would be a couple of meetings probably before action”. Today he said: “I think the thrust of extended period is that we believe we're at least two or three meetings away from taking any further action, and I emphasize ‘at least.’”
     
    #575     Jun 22, 2011
  6. Daal

    Daal

    But perhaps misspoke is not the right word. Its a strange 'coincidence' that the talk gets dovish when the data is bad but becomes tough when the data is good. Back in 2010 when the talk was all exit Bernanke NEVER went out of his way to say what extended mean, the FOMC reacted to Dudley 'six months' by saying 'its not a timetable' now that the data gets worse all of the sudden extended gets extended a bit more

    I'm surprised the Fed futures didn't react much to this
     
    #576     Jun 22, 2011
  7. Daal

    Daal

    #577     Jun 23, 2011
  8. Daal

    Daal

  9. Euro CHF broke the 1.20 level.

    A few more bad days on the stockmarket and we are at 1.10 or so.

    Remember when it was at 1.40 and the SNB was crying and Zero hedge kept reporting everyday on how they would step in. :D
     
    #579     Jun 23, 2011
  10. It sucks to be Hildebrand right about now...
     
    #580     Jun 23, 2011