Global Macro Trading Journal

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Daal, Feb 25, 2011.

  1. newwurldmn

    newwurldmn

    I don't think you are compensated enough for selling index vol these days. I would have rather bought puts than sold calls.
     
    #5721     Feb 2, 2016
  2. Daal

    Daal

    I'm guessing you are long vol?

    At this point I'm going to try to swing short a decent rally on S&P500 with a good sized position. ES tanked 50 points very quick so its dangerous to chase it down but if it puts a good pop I'm going to try to play the short side again like in September
     
    #5722     Feb 2, 2016
  3. Daal

    Daal

    Its tough because there is some indication that the market has a positive edge
    http://quantifiableedges.com/long-term-implications-of-last-weeks-breadth-thrust/

    So is today a flush out of the people who loaded up long friday and couldn't take the pain of the big gap down and contant selling or is it just a back and forth of an bottom that formed at the 1800 level on the SPX?

    I feels like there is more selling to be done, the tough thing is that if you don't get in a good price, as soon as there is a rally you might just cover and think you are wrong. At least thats a problem I face when I'm short indices and stocks in general
     
    #5723     Feb 2, 2016
  4. Daal

    Daal

    In the overall scheme of things, its bearish that central banks are not being able to prop these markets. This is a very dangerous health sign for the market. We haven't seen this type of action in a long-time
     
    #5724     Feb 2, 2016
  5. Daal

    Daal

    I don't have a lot of confidence, though, that the decline has to happen now. Maybe it happens 1 month from now, maybe 3 months. Thats the hard part, if you are short in decent size for that long, its VERY hard not to find a reason to close the short during that period
     
    #5725     Feb 2, 2016
  6. Daal

    Daal

    I got some short SPY cut back on my brkb. this market is looking pretty bad
     
    #5726     Feb 3, 2016
  7. Daal

    Daal

    I went flat on BRKB (except for the puts). PSH has China devaluation bets and I got SPY short with a small alocation to bonds. I think im resonable protected against a continued market puking
     
    #5727     Feb 3, 2016
  8. newwurldmn

    newwurldmn

    I'm long index vol. I'm short other vols.

    It's 19 vol (which historically is not cheap), but can easily be carried each day.
     
    #5728     Feb 3, 2016
  9. Daal

    Daal

    I didn't want to fight SPY so I covered when I started to lose money. Oil is likely to continue and the dollar index turning might fuel the market (might boost some revenues, etc). Draghi will speak tomorrow too. I swear to god, if I took profits 100% of the time I'm was up 1-2 dollars on SPY, I'd be a rich man
     
    #5729     Feb 3, 2016
  10. Daal

    Daal

    I think I have seen more paper profits evaporate on SPY that any instrument I ever traded
     
    #5730     Feb 3, 2016