Global Macro Trading Journal

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Daal, Feb 25, 2011.

  1. Daal

    Daal

  2. Daal

    Daal

    The reason I'm willing to take some heat in terms of stock market drawdown is because the biggest mistake I ever made in terms of investing/macro was not being long any stocks from 2009 to 2012. One of my flaws is my anti-equity bias, I just hate the idea of losing a lot in equities along with the investing public. But its a flaw that needs to be fixed, equities go up, thats what they do. If you are a pretty good timer, you can catch a short in indexes and make some money here and there but overall you are likely to suffer a lot to make very little. I think Soros wrote in one of his books how shorting stocks never made him much money. Of course, I'm referring to investing here. Intraday and swing wise, I love shorting and I believe there is a lot of money to be made there. But in a multi-month multi-year basis its hard. Its much easier to be on the long side

    So I'm forcing myself to do it. From 2013 to the middle of 2015 I stayed out to avoid distractions to my day trading. But now I'm starting to notice some benefits as well as some good opportunities. So I will force myself to get long some things that I like with a time frame of 1-2 years
     
    #5642     Jan 16, 2016
  3. newwurldmn

    newwurldmn

    Being long equities for the long term is a good strategy. However, you have to be okay with graham style risk measures (permanent loss of capital) vs path dependent ones.
     
    #5643     Jan 16, 2016
  4. Daal

    Daal

  5. Daal

    Daal

    sold my bonds into this panic
     
    #5645     Jan 20, 2016
  6. Daal

    Daal

    So I applied the bond idea (overweight duration in stable periods, underweight in panics) by going into 0 duration (cash). I will gradually add it back as the bounce goes on. Overnight session should give a clue on whether this has true legs or if just tanks back down like the last time
     
    #5646     Jan 20, 2016
  7. Daal

    Daal

    Oil cant tank on bad news. likely short-term bottom for stocks and oil
     
    #5647     Jan 21, 2016
  8. Daal

    Daal

    Bounce is fizzling out. i will monitor it intraday and add/cut bonds/SPY as the price dictates. wont be able to alert as these things change too quick
     
    #5648     Jan 21, 2016
  9. Daal

    Daal

    Today was a very frustrating day, day trading wise. There were three catalysts for a significant bounce, the Draghi comments (which in October lifted US equities for days), the oil reversal and into the close Kocherlakota tweeted an article saying that it was time for a U-Turn in Fed policy (nobody picked up on it though, not CNBC not bloomberg and not ZH)
    Usually those would be very strong catalysts for a huge bounce in equities, given how equities are oversold. Somehow today that didn't work. I'm not quite sure what is going on but I still think equities will act on these elements with a lag. I can't fight it though so I dumped my SPY longs. But it still feels like things will reverse from here. I mean the Draghi comments were so meant to push assets higher you would think it would work (i mean, the guy was screaming buy equities), he's even got the support from the Bundesbank now. But somehow the usual setup of oversold + CB support failed. Even with additional 2 catalysts (although the last one seems to have been missed by most)
     
    Last edited: Jan 21, 2016
    #5649     Jan 21, 2016
  10. Daal

    Daal

    In addition, when natural gas bottomed a while back, over the subsequent days, it ended up going quite a bit higher than most expected. I think that path is likely for oil as well.
     
    #5650     Jan 21, 2016