Global Macro Trading Journal

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Daal, Feb 25, 2011.

  1. Daal

    Daal

    #5511     Oct 30, 2015
  2. Daal

    Daal

    Not that I expect him to write an article saying stocks are a sell but on interviews I can't recall him saying that things are starting to get pricey
     
    #5512     Oct 30, 2015
  3. newwurldmn

    newwurldmn

    Buffet has in the past said stocks were to expensive (that is in his career). He shut down his partnership because overall valuations were too high.

    I think the buy america thing was more PR than reality. His personal account can't be more than a few million and if he really wanted to buy stocks he would have through Berkshire. But Berkshire was on the ropes because of its derivatives exposure and its impending railroad deal so he said something to prop re markets up. He's not above selling his brand that way.
     
    #5513     Oct 30, 2015
  4. Daal

    Daal

    I recall Buffett saying to Becky Quick that his non-BRK networth was around $100M and that he was long JPM but its been a few years so my memory could be faulty. This guy provides some evidence that the non-brk networth might be $1b-$2b
    https://www.quora.com/Does-Warren-B...Does-he-sell-his-shares-in-Berkshire-Hathaway
     
    #5514     Oct 30, 2015
  5. newwurldmn

    newwurldmn

    Interesting. Still a drop in the bucket to the purchasing power he controls at berkshire.
     
    #5515     Oct 31, 2015
  6. JB3

    JB3

    I think the whole $100M option to buy Philidor is for this very reason that they can insulate themselves and walk away, and claim that they do not own Philidor in legal jargon. Philidor is probably going to get sued into oblivion. The main question is if they can tie it to Valeant, and make them liable? It doesn't take a genius that Valeant knew exactly what was going on, and Philidor was operating with Valeant's guidance. So there is going to be a lot of lawsuits going on.

    Whatever the case, I would not be rushing out to buy any Valeant shares if I were you. At least wait for the dust to settle. I think there is also a contingent group of folks that would nothing more than to pile into Ackman's misery.
     
    #5516     Nov 1, 2015
    kinggyppo likes this.
  7. Daal

    Daal

    The largest healthcare settlement in history is $3B. Valeant can afford that. The stuff they did is not even close to as bad as what other companies did. You don't get the impression from twitter and the media beause the issue has been blown out of proportion. You would think they were running concentration camps by reading the articles and looking at the stock. Thats not reality
     
    #5517     Nov 1, 2015
  8. newwurldmn

    newwurldmn

    daal, what if the risk isn't that they get sued, but rather they can't continue their strategy which ensures higher drug prices (and higher profit margins). How will that affect their ability to service their debt?
     
    #5518     Nov 1, 2015
  9. Daal

    Daal

    if you look at the ackman presentation, the media has gottan VRX all wrong. the strategy the depends on price hikes is not a sigificant part of the business. going forward the company is not even planning to use that much more. furthermore, the stock, at $93, is a buy even with no growth. it trades at 6-7 times cashflows. and health care cash flows tend to be more durable than other stuff. They are also planning to use their cashflows to delever the balance sheet and turn themselves into investment grade
     
    #5519     Nov 1, 2015
  10. Daal

    Daal

    they also have a diversified business mix, you got many categories being 15-20% of revenues.
     
    #5520     Nov 1, 2015