Thank Jan Hatzius, he is the one making the bold call that the market underpriced the Dec hike meeting chance
Big miss 4 me in gold. Didn't help that steve liesman took 5 minutes to mention the 'if we hike in december' line. how the hell he missed that in his first reading is beyond me
covered SPY as well. holding up too well. the money was in shorting gold, unfortun, the only thing i didn't short
Thats the tough thing about equities and how they behave. The whole rally was based on the idea that the fed was stading pat till march 2016. The fed comes out and tells them they are wrong. markets drop for 30 minutes and come up back. that after having rallied 10% on a totally wrong belief. you just can't fight these people, they are too resilient. its nuts
This is why I'm making more of an effort to be more bullish and be long some equities. My skepticism makes it hard for me to be long stocks. But I'm working on it. I think its an important skillset that I lack. I usually comfortable betting against things and thinking things will get worse. Part of this effort, will envolve me putting 5% of my money in brazilian stocks. usually buying stocks in a recession is a good idea but I always keep delaying thinking 'maybe it will go lower' and then you miss out. I will have to just go ahead and buy it. if it goes lower, then I plan to buy more
this way I can profit in some of the ridiculous upward bias instead of just watching from the sidelines
I wouldn't 'get up and dance' on US equities because I think they are too richly priced. But Brazilian stocks trade at 11 times earnings, 1.15 or so book value and 4.5% dividend yields. Plus pessimism is high (which is good) so they are an interesting investment
He is basing that off his own forecast for employment/inflation which is very similar to the Fed so he thinks the data will go to where the Fed would act
I realize now that I probably should have sold all my 10y bonds. There is no much point in holding it in an enviroment where risk assets are getting chased and the fed is threatening to hike. I got some hedging going with the fed futures short but frankly, I probably should just sell it all and maybe speculate a bit on the fed futures side if I think thats a good bet