Pretty good example today of that setup I mentioned. This was wasn't as good because the gap up faded and THEN there was a morning pop. so the market didn't overextend intraday as much as it could have. but it did roll over, went red and flushed. I shorted in the cicle area but unfortunately I got greedy. I only covered small on the flush (dotted line is the green to red line) and wanted more. Markets popped back and chopped me around and I gave up. Its a shame, had it continued to flush it would have been a good gainer. Shorts got nervous and late longs found the dip they wanted to get in. Thats why the market popped, i think
the setup is the overextended daily chart, combined with overextended morning action. its usually a high % trade for the short side, once it looks like people are taking profits
Markets starting to pull. I will start covering into these pulls, then I might hold some for a bit longer just to see if the market continues down. will probably close fed futures position today
Closed fed futures position, tiny loss. looks like stocks are ready to roll over (SPY daily looks ripe for a fall)
Now its the dilemma, markets are weak and quite likely to gap down tomorrow. Do I cover into that flush and admit defeat or do I keep trying the thesis? I'm inclined to cover half and ride the rest (or be stopped out at SPX 2010). My fear is that the squeeze has affected the psychology of everyone and it will be hard to have a big decline as people will likely rush to buy it. Unless there is some new catalyst to the downside
I'm planning to put 5-10% of my money in gold at this point. I'm doing that as a way to diversify away from the USD and BRL (my home currency). I dont consider this a 'macro bet', one is forced to choose a currency to keep your money on I'm simply looking this as an alternative currency that is unlikely to collapse (which I can't say about the BRL). The USD is also up a lot and the fed is likely to stay low so it might weaken. For a US citizen it makes less sense to own gold (though it probably still does) but for a brazilian citizen, it makes a ton of sense as a I see it
I covered a bit under half of my IVV short and now will give the rest a try. WMT news and the profit taking that is going on might fuel the downside. Bonds are also rising. I still got a decent amount of bearish exposure in case the market cliff dives