Global Macro Trading Journal

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Daal, Feb 25, 2011.

  1. m22au

    m22au

    #5181     Jan 10, 2015
  2. Daal

    Daal

    Hi,
    True. I recall that Martinghoul made a similar suggestion. The question is, is that available to retail traders? As far as I know, there aren't retail forex houses offering options that go several years out.

    FXY, the yen ETF, only has options out to 2017
     
    #5182     Jan 10, 2015
  3. Daal

    Daal

    These futures are extremely illiquid. At least the last time I checked then. The need to constantly buy and roll over them will probably take away a lot of the currency yield. I will check them again monday
     
    #5183     Jan 10, 2015
  4. m22au

    m22au

    CME has options on JPY futures,
    http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/fx/g10/japanese-yen_contractSpecs_options.html?optionProductId=71

    and on the Nikkei USD contract:
    http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/equ.../nikkei-225-dollar_contractSpecs_options.html

    but obviously the spreads may be wide.

    The most simple suggestion I can make is to simply go long USD/JPY, that way you don't need to worry about losing money on wide option spreads.
     
    #5184     Jan 10, 2015
  5. m22au

    m22au

    I would assume that there will be January 2018 options available in about 9 or 10 days, once the January 2015 options expire.

    Although Yahoo Finance is telling me that the FXY January 2017 60.00 put is offered at $1.05, which is a premium of less than 1.3% for a strike price about 25% away. Cheap hyperinflation insurance if you believe it happens within 2 years.
     
    #5185     Jan 10, 2015
  6. Daal

    Daal

    EURCHF, incredible move. too bad it didn't seem to be hinted before hand. I also didn't hear about anyone talking of this trade so I never even considered. Crazy move
     
    #5186     Jan 15, 2015
  7. Daal

    Daal

    This is why I keep insisting in the short USDHKD trade. The payoff is so ginourmeous if the trade works out. I'm thinking of shorting USDHKD in the same proportion as my USD balances. Effectively swaping the USD for HKD while still retaining the yield of my securities (oanda charges 0.125% for USD lending but I get 1.45% in my USTs

    Then I can ocasionally lever up if I want more exposure
     
    #5187     Jan 15, 2015
  8. Daal

    Daal

    The question is, what is the credit risk of Oanda? We will see if they take a hit on this EURCHF move. IB charges too much to short USD
     
    #5188     Jan 15, 2015
  9. m22au

    m22au

  10. Daal

    Daal

    Thats nuts.
     
    #5190     Jan 15, 2015