Global Macro Trading Journal

Selling all of my GM this morning. If anybody had told me I'd make a lot of money in GM ... Just goes to show there are no bad companies, just bad prices. At the right price, even the biggest dog can be wildly profitable.

 

I note Apple has returned almost to near my cost basis. Of course not a fan of losing money, I watch this remarkable move with a bit of amused detachment.

I can't help remembering Cutten going postal on me last spring for having the temerity to suggest I was prouder of my Wal-Mart buy than than the Apple buy and that WMT might over time work out to be a better investment. Turned out it didn't take very long.

From here forward, I'm not willing to say yet.

 

Most worrying of all is that the fall in yields may blunt the incentive for euro-zone politicians to take tough decisions on reforms. “European policymakers only move at gunpoint, and the only gun around is the market,” says Willem Buiter of Citigroup. “The fact that sovereigns take a holiday from painful decisions every time the pressure is off is one reason why positive contagion is very harmful.”

http://www.economist.com/news/finan...ripheral-countries-are-soaring-time-celebrate

 

AAPL setting up for a nice bounce play + good fundamentals for long-term investing + good sentiment (in a contrarian sense)
I wrote a piece for SA where I explain in more detail why I'm averaging in at current levels. Lets see if they publish it

 

AAPL article
http://seekingalpha.com/article/113...tracking_notify

I'm averaging in the stock. Will own a trading and investment position

 

I'd guess wrong link

 

Dont know why
here is the link
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1134031-don-t-believe-the-hype-apple-s-growth-story-is-not-over

 

I wonder what are the returns for the Tilson ETF right now. Silence from ZH and ralph

 

I normally don't buy a stock based on discounted cash flow analysis, in APPL's case there is a nice convergence of sentiment, cash flow analysis, technical oversold conditions plus the floor that is created by the cash pile+operating cashflows combined with management willing to buyback stock (and give dividends)

It could get more oversold which is why I'm scaling in. I don't have a stop there. If I had some guts I'd have a huge position there but technology is just not my area of expertise

 

Is it just me or equity hype is at multi year highs?VIX is super low and comments tend to be on how equities will continue to do well

Bespoke had stats yesterday on how sentiment was really bullish