Global Macro Trading Journal

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Daal, Feb 25, 2011.

  1. Daal

    Daal

    #481     May 20, 2011
  2. I don't have a view... The answer depends on the goal you're trying to achieve.
     
    #482     May 20, 2011
  3. Their answer would be to keep the financial system alive they had and have no other choice.

    Taking the other side of that equation would bring about far more innocent victims then today's policies unfortunatly cause.
     
    #483     May 20, 2011
  4. It's all a matter of judgement. Ultimately, you have to hope that the people you have elected and appointed ARE the good and the bright (if not the best and the brightest) and that they'll make the right decisions, when the sh1t hits the fan (and for the Eurozone that's occurring as we speak).
     
    #484     May 20, 2011
  5. Puerta del Sol

    http://www.soltv.tv/soltv2/index.html

    Tahrir comes to Europe. They've been ordered to leave by midnight tonight. The world is watching.

    Elections Sunday. Socialists are about the get a thumping. When even the Socialists side with the banking class against its own people, where else can a citizen turn? The politicians and bankers are really testing how much crap the people will take. Trying so hard to kick the can to 2013. The world is watching.
     
    #485     May 20, 2011
  6. Not for remand - we are talking a few weeks at most, and in most cases (like this one) a few days until more info is gathered and a full bail hearing can happen. Remember bail is granted in the vast majority of cases, it's only real flight risks and heinous crimes where bail would create a genuine danger to the public that people are just locked up regardless.
     
    #486     May 20, 2011
  7. Daal

    Daal

    I'm considering increasing my EUR shorts significantly
    It seems that are 3 main possibilities of how the EU drama plays out

    -1. Fiscal transfers to Pigs(flat out giving money or 'value') by cutting rates on existing official loans, extending the maturities or cutting the principal. This seems to be EUR positive as it will enable Greece and others to survive but its highly politically unpopular
    -2. Rescheduling/reprofilling. Essentially default by extending maturities or otherwise changing the terms of the debt. Seems to be quite EUR negative as it will trigger all sorts of side effects, counterparty fears, banking fears and probably will shutdown their short-term funding markets. Govs might have to nationalize quite a few banks
    -3. Kick the can down the road. Give more official loans and delay the problem

    No 3 is not a really a solution because eventually they will have to pick 1 or 2(Though its true that in the mean time you can get squeezed). So it seems that the attractiveness of the EUR short comes down to how likely 1 and 2 are and how much will they affect the EUR in each case. Its hard to see how No1 is politically sustainable for any long period of time, maybe they can do that a little bit for a while but the size and constant need for fiscal transfers might make the option unworkable(Specially as more countries join the soup line)

    So it seems likely they will be forced into 2 at some point. Problem is if the EUR refuses to go down on bad news
     
    #487     May 26, 2011
  8. Yep, 'cause the carry munkies luv their carry. As long as you're OK sitting on it, while it carrying negatively, it makes all the sense in the world.
     
    #488     May 26, 2011
  9. ammo

    ammo

    4 if it's not ridiculous enough yet,extend more and more credit and issue fiat curency to the point that everyone will lose,no one can win,and they just forgive all or most the debt..a do over
     
    #489     May 26, 2011
  10. Why not short it versus CHF.

    They are bound to reach parity I would think.
     
    #490     May 26, 2011