This year I have increased by number of different strategies that I trade by a lot. There is not a lot to say about macro trades for me, my main trade will be the risk off trade but markets keep rising, I don't feel like fighting it for the most part I got some bearish bets but nothing major until markets get off cocaine, that only one that I'm kinda increasing this week is short EUR/NOK EUR/SEK These stock trades can add some pl and alpha if done right. FB potential re-buy after hitting stop(scratch trade)
The Facebook experience is certainly one for the investing textbooks as those long the stock (incl. me at one point) violate nearly every rule of success - recency effect, anchoring, you name it. Just because the thing came public at $38, folks assume that price has some sort of validity, so seeing it at $20, they reason how I can go wrong? If google could print a price chart or investors could envision one of the company in the years before it came public, it would look like the Nikkei of the 80s times 1000! Would they be so quick to buy at $20 then? Facebook when it came public was already a very mature company (whose shares had gone up thousands of times in value over the preceding few years) - it dominates the world and has 1B users!!! Buying Facebook today isn't like buying Microsoft in 1986, it's like buying Microsoft in 2000. Yes, it's an important company and will remain so. Yes, it's a dominant company and will remain so. But like MS in 2000, it's just not going to provide decent returns to owners of its common stock over the long haul. Buy it at $20 for a trade? Absolutely. Buy it as an investment to sock away for the kids? Your children have a parent who ought to find someone else to manage the family dough.
I want to reenter on FB. Daily chart looks really good for the last month or so. Problem is this stock pulls back a lot and is really choppy intraday, its becomes a dillema buy now or wait for better entry price?Guess I will enter part now and part later but I might be forced to buy above $22 if it runs Thesis is this is hated stock starting an uptrend +short interest(specially after Baron's cover) that is solvent and liquid and operationally is doing just fine. Not an investment, I will dump as fast as I bought it Stop at recent lows + wiggle room against HFT manipulation
Sorry, I have been very busy, so haven't seen this thread of late... I do have some bets that are sorta like this, but I refuse to have anything to do with EUR here. It's too complicated of an instrument for me.
Tilson presentation: "Why Netflix is a better business than Amazon" Attention-whore much? Clearly angling to get re-invited onto fast money. What an ass.
Hussman quoting ZH again. http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc121001.htm He admits to his indicators essentially having him out of the bull run since April 2010. At what point ought the guy simply shut down? No doubt we'll get a zinger of a bear run at some point, and that should give him enough fuel to keep his thing going for another 3 years. Some business.
I think EUR/USD is better than express the same view with SEK, NOK Riksbank will lower its rate like AUD other commodity currency. But like Martin said, EUR is very complicated, at right now. I have difficulty find a dominate theme after trio QE(Fed, ECB, BOJ) .
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news...Business+(The+Globe+and+Mail+-+Business+News) Approving NXY deal should become a talking point for the opposition, this will just politicize the process more