Global Macro Trading Journal

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Daal, Feb 25, 2011.

  1. Daal

    Daal

    Polling people for opinions on a merger deal its so rare, I don't recall that ever happening. Just goes to show how politicized this process will be.
     
    #4791     Sep 21, 2012
  2. Daal

    Daal

    FB, moving my stop to $22.24
     
    #4792     Sep 21, 2012
  3. jj90

    jj90

    For a dude that's doing supposed global macro trading trailing a stop on FB seems like style drift no? I know all bout style drift myself this year, so maybe a heads up that you might be doing the same?
     
    #4793     Sep 23, 2012
  4. zkf

    zkf

    I have the same feeling,

    maybe it's free-style, haha
     
    #4794     Sep 23, 2012
  5. #4795     Sep 25, 2012
  6. By the way, far more worrying than the silly Citron report was the CEO of the firm appearing on Cramer last night. That's usually a big, fat sell signal for me, but since I unloaded half my stake a couple of weeks ago, I passed on selling more this morning.

    Will now look to repurchase those shares.
     
    #4796     Sep 25, 2012
  7. Specterx

    Specterx

    I picked up a bit of FB today for a long-term investment.

    I'm pretty agnostic about the short to medium-term direction (out to a few years perhaps), but it's a possible a bottom could be close. The sight of bagholder retail investors buying a speculative growth stock at $40 and then rushing to sell at $20 never ceases to amaze - as though the company's business prospects have actually changed in the last four months.

    The bottom line for me is this: I joined FB when it was still restricted to Harvard, Yale, and Stanford and I've been on it for over eight years. Not a heavy user by any means, but judging by my newsfeed all the tales of people dropping off, etc. are way overblown. Everyone in my age range (26-28) and younger will most likely be social-network users for their entire lives. At this point Facebook would have to really screw up to get somebody like me to switch to an alternative, which is why efforts like Google+ have fallen flat despite FB's PR troubles over the years.

    In other words they have a de facto monopoly, and it's really only a matter of time until somebody figures out a way to really monetize all the free content and data being generated by FB's users. Zuck's controlling shareholding is quite likely to be a positive in this context, as it frees him to ignore Wall Street's whines and focus on evolving the company.
     
    #4797     Sep 25, 2012
  8. jj90

    jj90

    Joining the FB camp here, think it's at $10 or $30 within a year, so looking to pick up Jun/Jul 2013 calls. Would like to pull the trigger below $20 though.
     
    #4798     Sep 25, 2012
  9. Daal

    Daal

    I have been adding to EUR shorts, I would like to hear other people's thoughts on this but it seems like a good opportunity here, either

    -Europe implodes and the ECB does nothing or too little to late measures->EUR goes down like it did during this year Greek panic

    -Europe starts to implode and ECB buys Italian and Spain bonds en masse, currency plunges as it usually dues in QE like activities(US QE has guided the pair lately, but the move now seems priced in)

    -Europe recovers and everything goes well, in this case currency goes to highs and I'd exit my short

    I'm using USD to short EUR against it, but I might switch to SEK or NOK due
    -The charts look much better(EUR weaker there)
    -Its less choppy, it doesn't bounce around in nonsense headlines as much

    In the other hand
    -I don't know much about those countries(not compared to US)
    -They are quite overvalued in a PPP basis

    I bet Martin is shorting EUR/NOK or SEK
     
    #4799     Sep 26, 2012
  10. Bought more CMO this morning. When ex-divvie yesterday (about 2.5%), but the stock price declined far more than that. Something not adding up, but I'll buy first, investigate later.

    Company is slightly different than the better-known mREITs in that most of the paper it owns is tied to variable-rate mortgages.
     
    #4800     Sep 27, 2012