Global Macro Trading Journal

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Daal, Feb 25, 2011.

  1. I didnt ask your opinion cause of the gold link just to make it clear.

    From your posts here it shows you have an interest in the legal system obviously so I was just curious towards your assesment of the US legal system indeed being in shambles or such a view rather being mostly the sour grapes of a few unavoidable victims of it, particullary since you are now living abroad which could influence your perspective either way.


    Anyway, thanks for the answer.
     
    #471     May 18, 2011
  2. How do you know? It's quite possible it's a normal decision when someone accused of rape is from a foreign country with no extradition treaty and has the means, finances, and motive to flee justice. What would a rich Frenchman lose by taking the next private jet out of the country? He's an obvious flight risk.

    Also, there's risk from having sex with strangers. They could be HIV+, a serial killer, a psychopathic sadist, married to someone with a history of violence (who will come after you when they find out your diddled their wife), mentally unstable, have some other STD. And yes, they could accuse you of rape.

    Similarly, there is risk to living in a bad part of town, or associating with known criminals and low-lifes, even if you personally do nothing criminal.

    A bit like there is risk when you lose people money, even if you did nothing wrong. Strange on a trader site to see people apparently blind to the downside of obviously risky conduct.
     
    #472     May 18, 2011
  3. It's $1m if you are a politically influential multi-millionaire. If you're a broke street-sweeper, chances are it's less.
     
    #473     May 18, 2011
  4. Daal

    Daal

    But one innocent person in jail is such a bad thing that it outweighs lots of criminals out. Most people would agree with that(I dont think anyone would be pleased with a 1-1 ratio, probably not even a 5-1 ratio)

    The bruises or scratches thing could be an indicator but they are highly correlated to the 1st evidence(The witness). If the witness decided to provide false testimony he/she would make those up
     
    #474     May 18, 2011
  5. Daal

    Daal

    I'd agree with you totally if we are talking about AFTER he admitted sex(claiming it was consensual) or if the DNA showed something. But if all it takes is some woman showing up at NYPD for someone to go to jail then the system is fucked up because women can be extremely dishonest when they are angry
     
    #475     May 18, 2011
  6. Well, funnily enough, it looks like your heroes at the ECB are the ones that have now dug in their heels. They won't contemplate an restructuring option of any sort and have wheeled out their "nucular" deterrent. Specifically, they have said that (Trichet, Wellink and Stark on the wires today), in the event of a restructuring, they won't accept Greek guvvies as collateral. It's quite interesting who prevails in this case. In the past, the ECB eventually bowed to the political pressure, but this time around they might be more serious.
     
    #476     May 19, 2011
  7. I don't know if you are very familliar with him but I'll tell you this Wellink character is an ivory tower aristocrat that would pale Bernanke in comparison. :D

    Anyway, Martinghoul.

    I'm a bit suprised you would label it political pressure.

    I would say it is (at least has been) in my view more a case of the banking system health twisting both the politicians arms and those of the central bankers.

    They are quite co-dependend in my view, although perhaps lesser in the EU then in the US even given how a big bank failure in one country if contained would not lead by definition to the questioning of the ECB or it's leaders excistence or authority where as a similar event in the US probably could put severe pressure on the entire FED US society relationship nationwide.
     
    #477     May 19, 2011
  8. Yeah, I saw that too. The ECB is worried about contagion and their banker clients, and I assume the central bank itself has a lot of this paper on its books.

    The politicians/bankers are dug in and funding will be provided to push all this into 2013. My guess now is any sort of default will come from the ground up, i.e. protests will get so bad, it will force the politicians' hands. Think Tahrir Square in Athens/Dublin/Lisbon/Madrid. I don't know European election schedules offhand, but clearly those currently running the show in nearly every country will get tossed. Sadly, the ECB, IMF, Fed, and Tim Geithners of this world are going nowhere.
     
    #478     May 19, 2011
  9. We'll have to see... It's a very interesting dynamic.
    Well, I think at the moment there's a definite split from what I can tell, so that's what I am referring to. I think the ECB will be forced to concede and will do as they're told, just like they did previously with the peripheral bond purchases. And yes, I am familiar with Wellink and don't have anything in particular against him.
     
    #479     May 19, 2011
  10. You think they shouldnt or shouldnt have?
     
    #480     May 20, 2011