Global Macro Trading Journal

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Daal, Feb 25, 2011.

  1. Daal

    Daal

    I'd argue its the exact opposite, most who have debated you has felt you were unfairly characterizing their views (Of the top of my head I remember complaints from Specterx and Cutten)
     
    #4511     Jun 26, 2012
  2. dhpar

    dhpar

  3. Specterx

    Specterx

    Don't put words in my mouth or drag me into this.

    If you don't want to engage or hear from somebody then either put them on ignore, or just don't respond. At the current rate this thread is quickly (and sadly) being submerged under bickering and personality conflicts.
     
    #4513     Jun 26, 2012
  4. Hell, keeping responses to 100 words or less would solve pretty much everything. darkhorse doesn't seem like a bad guy, either does that goc dude, but my mind quickly drifts off to golf, or baseball, or porn within the first sentence or two of their posts.

    How about a tasty trade idea once in a while, presented succinctly?:)
     
    #4514     Jun 26, 2012
  5. dhpar

    dhpar

    +1

    maybe i should start to read your posts again...:)


    btw - why was copper so strong in the past 2 days? does it signal anything? is e.g. FCX a good value here? especially given the combination of 4% yield and its high beta?

    just a food for thoughts...dyodd
     
    #4515     Jun 26, 2012
  6. Specterx

    Specterx

    Natgas might be worth putting on the radar. There's been lots of talk lately about how rock-bottom prices are crimping exploration as drilling for shale gas is broadly unprofitable, and the wells exhaust extremely quickly (no drilling today on the expectation of higher prices in ten years). Exports are/would be profitable, but possibilities for that are currently very limited until LNG export capacity gets on-line.

    Either way, domestic prices ought to rise. I'm keeping an eye on UNG but this is one where you definitely don't want to be early.
     
    #4516     Jun 26, 2012
  7. dhpar

    dhpar

    agree on natgas (not on UNG though).
    interesting (likely russian sponsored) article here: http://cluborlov.blogspot.co.uk/2012/05/shale-gas-view-from-russia.html
     
    #4517     Jun 26, 2012
  8. jj90

    jj90

    2nd half of this thread you can see actually see the postings of trade ideas drop and arguments pick up.

    Anyways re:NG, I mentioned to GOC in another thread that it would make more sense to be long NG input companies/businesses then long NG itself. With so much of it around, and the capacity still there, price increases in the physical ought to be muted. Sure if upstream producers hold back capacity in an declining inventory environment, those middleman companies could get squeezed on op margins, but that is not where we are at and likely not to be for a few years.
     
    #4518     Jun 26, 2012
  9. ammo

    ammo

    that is picking up in all threads, i wonder if it's a tell on the market
     
    #4519     Jun 26, 2012
  10. Central planning rules the world. Tough to find a lot of alpha in this environment, so bored traders instead pull out their dicks for measurement.

    For now, I'll continue to stick with cheap big caps paying me well more than the 10-year Treasury yield for my money as they buy back shares, and (generally :) ) rise in price. Throw in your favorite mREIT (ATMs as long as Fed Funds stays at 0, which looks like it will be the rest of our lives), and you can sleep pretty easy at night while earning double-digit annual returns.
     
    #4520     Jun 27, 2012