Global Macro Trading Journal

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Daal, Feb 25, 2011.

  1. #4471     Jun 20, 2012
  2. Daal

    Daal

    The elements of risk can be cut down by waiting for greater evidence that the turnaround is working. There will be a cost in terms of price paid per share(The stock will gap up) but the difference between the fair value of the stock and the price after the gap will still be large due a number of reasons

    CDS is above 700 so yes there is risk but its seems quite overplayed by the media frenzy
     
    #4472     Jun 20, 2012
  3. Pretty much all of the mortgage REITs have declared Q2 divvies. No cuts and a few hikes ... ATMs.

    NLY still the most conservative of the bunch. For those that want more aggression, try AGNC. Not an owner myself anymore, but Kain is a badass.
     
    #4473     Jun 20, 2012
  4. Daal

    Daal

    CNBC reports JPM sold 60% of the position. Dimon reports they will make a profit this quarter. Surprise surprise, panicky investors were wrong
     
    #4474     Jun 20, 2012
  5. Daal

    Daal

    If the $2B loss has some massive volcker implications then ALL big bank stocks should have collapsed. That didn't happen. JPM XLF spread collapsed, incorrectly due this just being a one time hit to earnings. Heck, this loss will just help them not to get complacent for another few years
     
    #4475     Jun 20, 2012
  6. Even after a big bounce, the shares remain well lower than the level they were at. Those who sold the news (and maybe bought back later) were absolutely right.

    Listen, be a douchebag to me - I really don't care - but stop being such a prick to the rest of the population.
     
    #4476     Jun 20, 2012
  7. (for now)
     
    #4477     Jun 20, 2012
  8. *Long bonds breaking down today (10yr, 30yr)

    *Spanish bond yields biggest one-day dive since December

    * GLD, GDX selling off / looking like shite again

    Unless the Fed does something way out of line w/ expectations, broad message seems to be Europe is going back to boring (deeply problematic but contained), fear trade is subsiding, and full blown QE3 will have to wait for more serious deterioration of US economy, implying short to medium term blah-to-up scenario for equities and negative for precious metals.

    No positions at moment, but I'm guessing we'll have a chance to buy gold / gold stocks at much more attractive prices within the next few months. Not really interested in shorting, though, b/c of outside chances European shit hits the fan again.
     
    #4478     Jun 20, 2012
  9. Interesting theory from a JCP investor:

    http://www.minyanville.com/trading-...?camp=newsletter&medium=email&from=recapemail

    Mainly that Francis got booted not b/c Johnson needed a scapegoat, but because Francis recognized that the new strategy is fucked, tried to go back to the tried and true, and Johnson decided it was mutiny.

    Captain sounds determined to go down with the ship, er, strategy. Because his AAPL experience is so relevant to JCP.
     
    #4479     Jun 21, 2012
  10. Ok. So JPM is back down again today. Does that make all those who are not you right again? I'm losing track.
     
    #4480     Jun 21, 2012