I believe Europe will be back at implosion mode soon, how soon I don't know but if TLT starts going up again I'm going to buy "Certainty" is too strong a word to use, I find it probable TLT will give me a buy setup soon
This is one of the most IMPORTANT cardinal truths in trading and one of the MOST DIFFICULT to abide by.
Not surprisingly I agree with your analysis and since early/mid May I've greatly added to my gold and GDX, and put on a silver position today. I'm not so sure that the rally will necessarily take off immediately but I sure wouldn't complain.
Meh. It's only difficult to get it. Once you get it, the flexibility part comes naturally. "Strong opinions weakly held." Game multiple scenarios -- different versions of the market script. Then go with the script that fits the evidence and is confirmed by price action. No script confirmation, no activity (or trading small and light until more confirmation comes). If the plot changes, change with it. The script doesn't follow a linear path -- it's a Choose Your Own Adventure book. Longer term, good trading habits are about "right thought, right action." When your perception and internalized levels of understanding are correct, taking the correct action becomes as simple as reaching for a glass of water when thirsty.
He certainly doesn't seem to be throwing the market much of a bone. The employment weakness is due to "the end of a catch-up period," there are lots of "costs and risks" associated with further easing etc. At the very least suggests the FOMC is divided and he wants to kick the can until the meeting.
This further fits my hypothesis that Bernanke is not a complete idiot. If QE3 is his last bullet, he will want to wring every drop out of jawboning, and postpone the actual firing of the bullet for as long as possible. This involves walking a tightrope of expectations. Melvin Udall: You make me want to be a better man. Carol Connelly: That's maybe the best compliment of my life. Melvin Udall: Well, maybe I overshot a little, because I was aiming at just enough to keep you from walking out.
Couldn't disagree more with this. Bernanke doesn't think QE3 is his last bullet. He doesn't think a central bank can EVER run out of bullets. If you disagree with that, its not relevant, he is the one controlling the printing press The bar for easing a higher than the market thinks but it doesn't mean they are afraid to use due fears of not having 'bullets' left or anything like that