Global Macro Trading Journal

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Daal, Feb 25, 2011.

  1. Butterball

    Butterball

    Yes I gradually got stopped out out most equity long positions, also reduced overall gross exposure. I am now approx. 15% net long (25% long, 10% short) equities (US and emerging markets).

    Still about 200% long across the major global bond futs. Obviously this nice run can reverse and implode any second, as I said I hoped to ride this into the summer but this looks like a blow-off in the making. Holding stops close by.
     
    #4251     May 30, 2012
  2. Rumor the SNB is going to do something tonight. One possibility is to take pressure off by lowering the floor to CHF 1.10. Hard to believe they would give up that easily.
     
    #4253     May 30, 2012
  3. luisHK

    luisHK

    And this 2 days after Jordan said the SNB was prepared to hold the floor even in the most adverse eurozone situation ??? Where did you hear that ? Google came up with nothing
     
    #4254     May 30, 2012
  4. http://georgedorgan.livejournal.com/10650.html

    I don't know who this guy is, but I remember (in another blog he used to write) some time ago getting a tasty and profitable tidbit from him. He basically writes a blog devoted to the franc and the SNB.
     
    #4255     May 30, 2012
  5. luisHK

    luisHK

    Thanks Ralph, I discovered and bookmarked this blog just yesterday but didn't check it today ...
     
    #4256     May 30, 2012
  6. #4257     May 30, 2012
  7. When you have to ask other people for reassurance about your position, it's usually a sign you should exit. Someone with conviction would not need reassurance on the trade. This is not just my opinion, it's the view of many experienced traders who've made a lot more money than any of us. if you get defensive when people tell you this, it's an even more reliable signal to get out. You're clearly emotional about the trade so my advice is exit at the market asap.

    You brought up 'value', but value never matters in a market squeeze or panic - if it did, there would never occur extreme valuation distortions. So, value is not a reason to do the trade, you also need to be highly confident that you won't get seriously squeezed. You lack that confidence, as shown by your post here, therefore if the market starts going parabolic (quite common in panics) then you will get squeezed out, probably near the end of the move.

    That's the rationale behind my post. It's silly to get angry when a stranger tries to save you losing lots of money.
     
    #4258     May 30, 2012
  8. dhpar

    dhpar


    thank you for your psychological analysis; and for your effort to save me from myself; and for not answering the only relevant question.

    jeez. you must be busy indeed. don't worry, i am not angry with you - i just ignore your jerking off. :D
     
    #4259     May 30, 2012
  9. benwm

    benwm

    I think your reaction to Ghost of Cutten's post is telling.

    But to answer your question, the fact Schatz yields got to 0% already is significant...imagine all those RV hedge funds thinking the same as you that 0% will be a floor. And then when you stick a minus sign on the yield they start crapping it and run for the exit. IMO it is now only a matter of time before yields go negative.

    Swiss 2yr bonds are already -0.20% and if they introduce capital controls like they did in the 1970s such as taxing non residents deposits upto 10% of capital (not interest) per quarter you'll have to take a lot of heat to ride it out.. More negative Swiss yields will put pressure on German yields to go negative.

    Good luck but I think you're pissing in the wind here.
     
    #4260     May 31, 2012