Of course. it's always been about this. Political and bureaucratic power. Greece can walk away and the country will be just fine in 18 months. The danger for the EU is Spain, Italy, Portugal, Ireland, and even France seeing how nicely Greece rebounds while their countries remain in recession. Politics is power. Nothing more. That's what this whole stupid exercise is about.
WMT at 10-year high just a couple of weeks after the idiotic Mexican bribery thing. It's the difference between a mainstream media, trumped-up fake scandal and a real one (JPMorgan); the difference between something that would have no effect on the earnings power of a company and something truly material. Dimon announced the suspension of share repurchases today. Another stupid move to a) announce that (there's no requirement for such), and b) suspend them, given the share price is so "cheap" Of course, maybe Dimon no longer thinks the price is so cheap. I would also add that the move higher in WMT has come against a pummeling in the "market". Hussman can keep right on talking. I'll also also add, I would have preferred WMT fall to $50, so I could have bought more w/my reinvested divvies and maybe even added another nice block of shares in addition to that. Gotta take the bad with the good though.
Michael Platt on JPM (where's martin?). BlueCrest was on the other side of the trades and he says bigger losses are coming if Europe continues to deteriorate. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-...platt-says-bank-s-trading-loss-may-widen.html It's time to lay this on the table. JPMorgan is in trouble - maybe not AIG-trouble, but trouble. It's the best reason yet to expect some sort of Fed or western central bank coordinated action .... soon. One idea was floated in the FT today by the Polish finmin - getting Greece out of the euro combined with the ECB committing to purchasing unlimited amounts of sovereign bonds. http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/a8fb20ce-a27d-11e1-a605-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1vWX82M5N
You keep bringing up dividends on stocks like WMT and IBM which yield about as little or even less than the S&P 500. Why so?
Don't own IBM and have never said a word about WMT's divvie with respect to the S&P at large. I'm not sure why it's even relevant. I lose track of things and am too lazy to look back and check, but are you (or is 'specter') the poster who's always talking about Hussman (and the fabled "market") as if the guy's got some sort of line to god?
Its said the Lehman was allowed to fail because the Fed didn't had the legal powers to lend against LEH junk assets and they refused to lie and do the loan anyway. Its possible that the same happens with the ECB and Greece. The ECB seems to take their own rules very seriously, its possible that they will not ignore them when the time comes. This would force Greece out This is a rough model of how I'm seeing things and basing my decisions on Even though I can't be entirely sure whether they will be forced out or not. It seems safe to believe the risk assets for the next month are a risky proposition except for quick bounces because it will go down either way this plays out
The risk to this view are things like this http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LjZ9HzscC5c&feature=youtu.be changing peoples perception
Is there any reason why Greece needs to be forced out of the Euro if they run out of money? Why couldn't Greece default on 100% of their debt and keep the Euro, for example? P.S. The angle of the 'kicking the can down the road' rally is probably going to be sharper (and 'delay default' is a more concise, meaningful, and attractive phrase).