If you're such a smart guy (and apparently you had the exact price movement in JCPenney over the past few months mapped out before it happened), and you want to catch JPM for a bounce, feel free. But don't mix JPM in with WMT. As the last 2 weeks have made clear, banks are black boxes even to the guys running them. We can have a pretty good (not exact) idea of what WMT is going to earn this year, the next, and years down the road. We know how much cash it will throw off, what the divvie will be, what the buybacks will be. It's really pretty simply math. What we don't know is what price Mr. Market puts on the stock (hopefully lower as this won't affect earnings). Who knows what JPM will earn and whether those earnings are even true economic earnings and not just accounting entries. Jamie Dimon doesn't have a clue. How do you?
Yesterday my biz partner got a text from the poker dealer at an underground cash game he frequents: "What do you think about Facebook - can you help me buy shares"
"$FB opens +10%, $LNKD opened +84%, $GRPN 40%, $RENN 39%, $P 25%, $ZNGA +10%. 6 mos later all were < open (avg -44%) Implies FB $28 in Nov $$"
We're getting close to levels on SPX where I would expect a bounce - which if it happens will presumably be coordinated with global risk assets. If we get down around 1290 I'll probably buy some ES in my macro portfolio (distinct from my regular ES trading) and look for a week or two bounce. A real crash through this area with VIX spike will send my puts through the roof so I think it's a worthwhile temporary hedge.
FB occasionally has prints way beyond or bellow its last traded price. I assume these are market orders, its amazing that the market markers are allowed to get away with this
I agree 100%. I don't see how any bank stock can be described as an 'investment'. Any bank in the world could disappear in a week if they have some crazy big position or rogue trader and it triggers a bank run. Buffett said he avoided tech because he wasn't sure the business would still be around in 10 years. But he invests in banks and even investment banks, and with those we don't even know if the business will still be around in 10 weeks.
I was wondering which muppets paid $45 on the open. 15% loss already in a few hours. Such a shame you can't short IPOs for the first month. I'm wondering if this is a temporary top for social media stocks. The hype from the clueless is so big, you have to ask if the whole thing will crash down to earth at some point.
People keep talking how to fit in Greece in Germany in the same monetary union but there are huge disbalances in countries and regions themselves. Italy has parts richer then Germany and worse of then Greece. Yet nobody thinks about those imbalances it's all about calming the bond markets so everything can return back to normal. Now all the talk over here in Europe is New York gives more to Tennesee then Germany to Greece we need one bondmarket....