Soars??? Dead cat bounce more like it -- same in GDX, and not at all out of sorts for the type of cliff-diving drops both have seen. Wouldn't be surprised if recent GLD / GDX carnage was a big player (or more than one) getting blown out. That or a whole trainload of weak hand retail holders getting rinsed. Natural to see that kind of pop on selling pressure abatement after said pressure has reached extremes. Wake me when gold reclaims its 20 EMA.
I started to buy a stake on JCP. Only a bit 1% position so far. Goal is to get up to 3% or so. What people are saying about the company is just music to my ears 'uncertainty', offending the CEO, talking about bankruptcy etc
On the other hand, at 50c give or take the upward NGD move is roughly 1x ATR (average trading range), which is in line with GDX bounce on the whole today
True. He is going to be trouncing the S&P500 by the time the time his thesis play out. I bet we won't hear much from people about how he can't beat the market
There is almost ALWAYS bad news, and bad forward sentiment, when a stock gaps down on poor expectations or missed earnings. Do you have specific fundamental reason to believe JCP outlook is misinterpreted, or is your rationale entirely "human mispricing" in a general sense? Because if it's the second, your strategy implies that all downward gaps are to be bought, as a general rule, because all sellers are somehow "human mispricing" challenged. That seems as foolish as saying all distressed debt opportunities should be bought. When catching knives / buying blowouts, the whole point is due diligence on a situational case-by-case basis to determine whether the numbers, the data, the nitty gritty forward outlook probabilities, actually confirm a mismatch between knee jerk reaction and true risks. Because sometimes it's the opposite -- sometimes the initial reaction is not nearly severe enough, with a hell of a lot more downside to go, because of all the self-styled faux contrarians around who just love feeling "smart" when they buy on a gap. I guess I'm just perplexed. JPM, now JCP... there has GOT to be more to your rationale than just a general handwaving assertion of "human mispricing." Doesn't there???
I'm not interested in answering because I'm sure you will nitpick on something in order to make sure you look like you don't lose the debate. I love a good debate where I actually learn something. I'm not sure I can do that with you, no offense
I'm mainly just curious as to how deep your research process goes with these kinds of plays, but also curious if there is a reason why JCP looks better as a fundamental purchase than the outlook suggested, e.g. if there's a value investing rationale for long JCP I would be interested in hearing what it is. I can play a little rough here and there but I think my track record of acknowledging good points and sticking to fair terms of debate on this thread (and in general) is a fair one.
I concur, past few weeks action has been a gift to patient value players - especially with the stock market looking a bit precarious, could see extraordinarily rapid gains in both gold and gold stocks.