Einohrn at Grant's a couple of weeks back. I've been waiting for some of the conference talks to start making their way into the media. They were all fantastic, especially Druckenmiller. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/david-einhorn/fed-interest-rates_b_1472509.html The Fed "put" isn't under stocks, it's under bonds. Great stuff.
Sorry Marty, just sold a few euros on the ramp up during the ECB press conference. Those guys are delusional.
I look something like this (liquid only, not including RE etc): - 11% in PMs (mostly gold) - 17% with a few different mutf managers (mostly fixed income) - 8-9% total in a handful of equity positions - long GDX, long GREK (small), short EWA (very small) - Negligible % (<0.25) in long-dated GDX calls and AMZN puts (bought the latter after the recent earnings spike) - Remainder (approx 63%) in cash. I would like to increase my position in GDX either on trend change, or on further significant price weakness so long as gold holds up. EWA, I plan to increase on every technical failed breakout or TL break. I'm waiting to see how GREK performs on the next big leg down before increasing my position. In theory I could live with a higher PMs allocation as well but for now I'm holding off for lower prices, or more clarity about the future course of money supply, Fed actions etc. Otherwise equities strike me as a minefield. Might look to put around 10% of assets into some of those floating-rate Treasury notes, if they're indeed issued.
There is a Romanian miner called Gabriel Resources. Paulson and others hold it. It has big permit issues and the stock has fallen from 9$ to 2$ today. If it drops below 1$ or further I might buy some. If the permit issue gets resolved it could easily spike massively. Other miners have had simmilar issues, some went bust, others went huge. And everyone knows in Eastern Europe you can just buy your permits right...
I don't disagree here, I'm pessimistic about the prospects for sustained inflation-adjusted gains in US stocks over the next 5-10 years. I keep hearing how incredibly cheap this market is but I just don't see it. At best IMO US equities are fairly valued, at worst they're overpriced heading into a long period of margin compression. There may be some screaming bargains emerging in Europe over the intermediate term but I don't trade those on an individual stock basis, so I can't comment. Having said that: I've been very (incorrectly) bearish for the last 12 months but hasn't stopped me from being long for a trade, at times aggressively so. Ready to pull in my tail if equities drop another 5-6% from here.
Via Dshort, Shiller P/E10 says stocks are 33% above average mean http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/PE-Ratios-and-Market-Valuation.php Also, more on the Aussie bear case (we re-shorted AUDUSD yesterday) http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/201...that-a-credit-bubble-this-is-a-credit-bubble/
Keep an eye out on the Canadian credit bubble as well, on the west coast it is very sensitive to china.