Global Macro Trading Journal

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Daal, Feb 25, 2011.

  1. Trouble being, there are two ways that can adjust -- kind of like the oil to natural gas ratio.
     
    #3631     Apr 23, 2012
  2. The anti establishment types are made up, and those who qualify for such title voted for Hollande or the communists.

    You vote Le Pen if you want the Arabs out it's as simple as that and the majority of those would rather take a bullet in the stomach then vote left. :)

    No, personally I believe it's a lock for Sarkozy.

    Holland is another story as wel. I posted here how the sale of new build homes dropped 80% compared to 2008...

    And now they want to blame Europe for their troubles.

    Only 6 months ago it were the lazy Greeks not wanting to handle their own problems.

    Only Germany and Belgium still holding firm in Europe's core...:D

    I agree on it not being that important who wins the election... everywhere.

    Each 4 years people get so worked up and hate on the guy in office and think someone new will fix everything...

    One of the great mysteries of our time.
     
    #3632     Apr 23, 2012
  3. Sarkozy = finished
     
    #3633     Apr 23, 2012
  4. A tidbit of information...

    Apparently, last night, on the open, the EURCHF order book on EBS was briefly visible all the way down to 1.20. There was a resting bid at 1.20 in €20bn. Take w/a pinch of salt.
     
    #3634     Apr 23, 2012
  5. Mystery?

    More like one of the great predictables of our time...
     
    #3635     Apr 23, 2012
  6. Specterx

    Specterx

    Pics or it didn't happen :p
     
    #3636     Apr 23, 2012
  7. I ain't a dealer, sire, so I don't got no pics. Could be just a random FX mkt rumor.
     
    #3637     Apr 23, 2012
  8. Specterx

    Specterx

    You're right, but his point is that gold stocks appear to be so undervalued presently that gold can decline quite a bit before the gap is closed. I am not actually basing my view on the gold:gold stocks ratio though, rather the general view that gold stocks are unlikely to enter a real bear market if the metal keeps going up, yet this is what sentiment seems to expect - which itself seems due to the expectation of a goldilocks magic pixie dust recovery to normalcy.

    And then, in the event of a cataclysmic collapse in gold it at least implies all my cash US dollars will be worth a ton more than they are now...
     
    #3638     Apr 23, 2012
  9. The price of Newmont Mines borders on silly cheap. Of course, I don't own it, so it's easy for me to say!
     
    #3639     Apr 23, 2012

  10. Yep, don't really disagree -- except for the caveat that gold stocks could turn out to be a massive value trap, maintaining the worst scenario for gold is neither inflationary recovery nor deflationary collapse, but a shitty limp-along recovery that satisfies no one (except guys like Roubini and Shilling).

    As Jeremy Grantham points out, lazy value investors do better than attentive ones in situations like the above -- instead of acting on "compelling cheap," they aren't roused 'til "ridiculous cheap" or "insanely ridiculous cheap."
     
    #3640     Apr 23, 2012