Global Macro Trading Journal

Greek 2 years settle at 17.83% up 90 basis points ... it's all contained.

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GGGB2YR:IND

 

Frankly I don't understand the euro anymore. The market doesn't seem to care to any large degree that a few will default and possibly switch currencies, at least for now. If there is money to be made on the short side there it will be when the currency starts to trade like financial stocks in 2008, large declines on news/squeezes, etc. Then I believe there will be plenty of time to get in. I have cut down my short there more than 50% and now I'm only short against CHF and JPY, I dont plan to add unless the currency starts to act very differently

I'm trying to find the Rogoff data on how currencies act during and after sovereign debt crisis. I bought the audio version of his book so I'm having a hard time but I remember that it wasn't a good outcome

 

This ain't data but its based on it
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aWq9ScPPDm28

Comparing the challenges faced by policy makers globally, Rogoff said his money “is still on the euro” to “hugely” underperform this year.

 

Roubini lays out China's bear case
http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/roubini37/English

 

Lol - so everyone who bought a house on his advice should do what, try and sell it 1 year later?

 

Bears repeating that the 'euro' value is relative. It only appears ok when measured against a currency managed by an inflationist sociopath ($). Against everything else on the planet that has true value, it is declining.

 

LOL at Goldman trying to help out their easy money buddies at the Fed by putting out a series (4 by my count) of bearish reports on commodities this week. Knocked 'em for a loop early, but all are recovering.

Gold now at new all time high and threatening $1,500. Silver at new post-Hunt Bros. high and threatening $43, even oil (down $8 to $105 early this week) has recovered the majority of its losses, back over $110. $AUD back at its all-time high as well. $UUP at all-time low.

 

What are your recommended currencies Ralph?

 

It's all a conspiracy, innit?

 

This looks really solid.Of course trading long term is nothing new. I'm a day trader and I rely heavily on charts and indicators and I find it interesting and respectable that you trade on the long term with no financial education under your belt. Good going and good luck in the future!